Farmers Expect Lower Soybean Yields and Global Competition
The global soybean market is set to face challenges in 2025 as multiple factors influence supply and demand. According to Matt Erickson, who spoke at the South Dakota AgOutlook event, U.S. farmers will see economic shifts driven by interest rates, tariffs, and crop yield projections.
Erickson highlighted that soybean yields are expected to decrease from 51.7 bushels per acre to 50.7, impacting farm income. Corn yields have also come in lower than anticipated, which may affect planting decisions for the upcoming season.
“I think the main thing here for 2025 is when you look at some of these metrics in the market, such as the soybean-to-corn price ratio, the market right now is just screaming ‘corn acres,’” said Erickson. The March Prospective Plantings report will be crucial in determining how many acres are allocated to corn and soybeans.
Another major factor affecting the soybean market is South America’s projected record-high production. Erickson noted that Brazil and Argentina’s combined soybean production has increased by approximately 10% compared to last year, increasing global supply and market pressure.
Additionally, Brazil currently offers the lowest export prices for soybeans, making U.S. exports less competitive. The world stocks-to-use ratio also suggests an abundant global soybean supply, further influencing price trends.
On the corn market, Erickson pointed out the significant role of Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine. Excluding the U.S., these three nations have the lowest stocks-to-use ratio since 1983/84, indicating limited corn availability on the global market.
With these supply shifts and market trends, U.S. farmers will need to monitor global production, price competitiveness, and demand fluctuations to navigate the 2025 planting season successfully.