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Grocery Prices Still Higher as Inflation Rate Moderates in July

The price of groceries continued to climb in July, even as the broader Canadian inflation rate moderated. 

A Statistics Canada’s consumer price index on Tuesday pegged the July inflation rate at 7.6%, down from the near four-decade high of 8.1% notched in June. It was the first month-over-month decline in the inflation rate in a year. However, prices for food purchased from stores were up 9.9% in July, compared to the 9.4% advanced posted in June.  

Prices for bakery products (+13.6%) continued to rise at a faster pace as wheat prices remained elevated, StatsCan said. Higher input costs and global supply uncertainty related to the Russian invasion of Ukraine continued to put upward pressure on global wheat prices amid an already constrained supply. 

Other food items also exhibited faster price growth, including non-alcoholic beverages (+9.5%), sugar and confectionery (+9.7%), preserved fruit and fruit preparations (+10.4%), eggs (+15.8%), fresh fruit (+11.7%), and coffee and tea (+13.8%). 

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USDA took Trumps comments that China would buy more U.S. soybeans seriously and headline news that the U.S./China trade truce would be extended when Trump/Xi meet in the first week of April was a BIG WIN for soybeans this week! 2026 “Mini” U.S. ethanol boom thanks to 45Z + China’s ban of phosphates from Feb. – August of 2026 will not help lower fertilizer prices anytime soon! 30 mmt of Chinese corn harvest is of poor quality and maybe a technical breakout in wheat futures.

*Apologies! Where we talk about the latest CFTC update as of 10th Feb 2026, managed money funds covered their net short position in canola to the tune of +42,746 week-on-week to flip to net long 145 contracts and not (as we mistakenly said) +90,009 wk/wk to 47,408.