By Jonathan LaPorte
Potential record yields, low grain prices and buyer demand are some of the current concerns affecting selling decisions on many Michigan farms. Leading these challenges is USDA’s projected national record corn yield and a record soybean crop in Michigan. If yields are realized, available grain storage may struggle to hold all of the bushels. In addition to yields, trade disruptions from the lack of soybean purchases from China could make soybeans more difficult to sell. While corn growers watch to see if USDA’s projected feed, exports and ethanol use projections are realized. If corn use is significantly lower than projected, ending stocks may be higher than anticipated. The impact of these challenges could lead to a showdown between corn and soybeans for vital bin space.
Farms are not the only places facing potential impacts from production and market challenges. High yields may lead to an increased demand for storage space at local grain elevators. Trade disruptions or lower use projections could add additional pressure on commercial storage. Grain elevators faced with these types of challenges may feel forced to increase storage costs and widen basis values. Especially if bushels are difficult to move because new buyers are needed for either corn or soybeans. The net result for either crop will be lower prices in an already depressed commodity market.
The underlying need to navigate these challenges is having enough grain storage capacity. However, the first step is to identify your farm’s expected production to know what storage needs you’ll have. Once needs are determined, then align your market strategies to match your storage intentions.
Identifying expected farm production
According to USDA yield forecasts for the 2025 harvest season, record yields may exist in some areas of Michigan but will largely be dependent on where your farm is located. Drought conditions have impacted some areas of the state for much of the growing season. Conversely, other areas have received timely rains and may find yields are surprisingly good to excellent. If you haven’t started harvest yet, in-field yield estimates for both corn and soybeans will give you a starting point of what to expect. If harvest has begun, consider what fields have been harvested and if they are representative of the entire crop.
Some fields may have experienced more challenges from the growing season and are targeted first for harvest. There may be fields that have a historically higher or lower production when compared to those fields harvested earlier in the season. Considering which fields have or will be harvested first and how they compare to all of your acres can provide a starting point on expected total bushels.
Identifying storage needs and availability
For those farms expecting average to above average yields, the availability of storage may be a limiting factor. On the other hand, farms expecting lower yields may not have enough production to fill their current storage. Empty grain bins may present opportunities for both types of farms, not just those in need of additional storage.
Source : msu.edu