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Jury Out on Sunflower Crop

Sunflowers stood out in Monday’s Statistics Canada report as being one of the very few Prairie crops expected to see a production decline this year compared to 2021. 

However, industry sources report mostly excellent sunflower conditions, certainly better than a year ago when severe and widespread drought badly dented the production of most crops. 

“Last year, we had a lot of heat stress through the growing season and a lack of moisture. This year, we’ve had ample moisture and very little heat stress,” said Manitoba Crop Alliance director Gregg Fotheringham, who grows sunflowers near Reston in the southwest corner of the province. “There’s been very little insect damage and better growing conditions all the way around.”   

In its model-based production estimates this week, using a combination of satellite imagery and agroclimatic data, Statistics Canada estimated 2022 Canadian sunflower output at just under 62,000 tonnes, down almost 20,000 from a year earlier and potentially the smallest crop in five years. Sunflower seeded and harvested area is estimated down from last year, but StatsCan also put the average yield at 1,681 lbs/acre, a surprising drop of 7% from 2021. 

Heavy rains in Manitoba, where most of Canada’s sunflowers are grown, caused a delay in spring seeding which resulted in the drop in acres. But sunny and warm weather in August has been improving the condition of the crop.  

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Wheat Yields in USA and China Threatened by Heat Waves Breaking Enzymes

Video: Wheat Yields in USA and China Threatened by Heat Waves Breaking Enzymes

A new peer reviewed study looks at the generally unrecognized risk of heat waves surpassing the threshold for enzyme damage in wheat.

Most studies that look at crop failure in the main food growing regions (breadbaskets of the planet) look at temperatures and droughts in the historical records to assess present day risk. Since the climate system has changed, these historical based risk analysis studies underestimate the present-day risks.

What this new research study does is generate an ensemble of plausible scenarios for the present climate in terms of temperatures and precipitation, and looks at how many of these plausible scenarios exceed the enzyme-breaking temperature of 32.8 C for wheat, and exceed the high stress yield reducing temperature of 27.8 C for wheat. Also, the study considers the possibility of a compounded failure with heat waves in both regions simultaneously, this greatly reducing global wheat supply and causing severe shortages.

Results show that the likelihood (risk) of wheat crop failure with a one-in-hundred likelihood in 1981 has in today’s climate become increased by 16x in the USA winter wheat crop (to one-in-six) and by 6x in northeast China (to one-in-sixteen).

The risks determined in this new paper are much greater than that obtained in previous work that determines risk by analyzing historical climate patterns.

Clearly, since the climate system is rapidly changing, we cannot assume stationarity and calculate risk probabilities like we did traditionally before.

We are essentially on a new planet, with a new climate regime, and have to understand that everything is different now.