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Kim Anderson Say Upward Movement in the Basis Good News for the Wheat Markets and Farmers

 
This week on SUNUP - Oklahoma State University Extension Grain Market Economist Dr. Kim Anderson joins host Lyndall Stout again to report the good news and the bad news for Oklahoma’s wheat industry. Starting with the bad news, Anderson describes the uncooperative growing environment farmers have faced this year.
 
From one extreme to the other, Anderson lists drought and freezing temperatures as the major contributing factors that have influenced this crop’s development - which have so far resulted in the worst level of crop conditions Oklahoma has seen in years. In addition, Anderson says the Kansas City July contract recently fell about 40 cents, dragging the harvest price of wheat down with it. Topping things off, he says China has added even more uncertainty into an already depressed market, slapping increased tariffs this week on US grain sorghum as part of an ongoing trade dispute.
 
On bright side, though, Anderson also had good news to report. Despite the harsh elements farmers have had to deal with, he says the good news is that there are areas in the state where wheat has not been damaged by late freezes and have also managed to survive persistent drought conditions. More so, rain is expected in the forecast which he says might help to promote better yields, test weight and protein levels in viable fields. Also, while the Kansas City July contract has dropped lower, Anderson says the basis has actually risen up about 45 cents over the last month and a half - a sign that the market needs this crop, he says.
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USDA took Trumps comments that China would buy more U.S. soybeans seriously and headline news that the U.S./China trade truce would be extended when Trump/Xi meet in the first week of April was a BIG WIN for soybeans this week! 2026 “Mini” U.S. ethanol boom thanks to 45Z + China’s ban of phosphates from Feb. – August of 2026 will not help lower fertilizer prices anytime soon! 30 mmt of Chinese corn harvest is of poor quality and maybe a technical breakout in wheat futures.

*Apologies! Where we talk about the latest CFTC update as of 10th Feb 2026, managed money funds covered their net short position in canola to the tune of +42,746 week-on-week to flip to net long 145 contracts and not (as we mistakenly said) +90,009 wk/wk to 47,408.