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Letter: Standing Up For Science-Based Rules

 
On August 23, 2016, this Letter to the Editor was sent to all agricultural news publications across Western Canada. A collaboration between Alberta Canola, SaskCanola, Manitoba Canola Growers Association, and the Canadian Canola Growers Association this letter addressed the Chinese dockage and trade issue.
 
Letter to the Editor: Standing up for science-based rules
 
Harvest in western Canada has started and uncertainty about canola seed exports to China continues. It’s an important issue and everyone in the Canadian grain and oilseed industry needs to understand what’s at stake. Accepting Chinese demands for less than 1% dockage without a science-based reason has long-term implications for the future competitiveness of our industry.
 
Over the past six and half years the Canadian canola industry has been working with the Chinese to address their concerns that blackleg could be transferred from Canadian canola to China’s canola (rapeseed) crop. Canada has invested millions in research to understand where the risk might be and how to lower it. Actions have already been taken by both countries to lower this– such as limiting Canadian shipments to areas in China that don’t grow rapeseed. Now, the Chinese government wants to limit dockage to less than 1% because they say dockage could transmit blackleg to their crops.
 
But there’s a problem. There’s no evidence this would have any impact on the risk of blackleg.  Achieving 1% dockage in canola creates extra costs – especially on the large volumes of seed that China takes. About 40% of our seed exports go to China.
 
The Canadian grain handling system is designed to move large volumes of grain from farm to port. Lowering dockage requires time and equipment. With many crops going through the same grain handling system, extra time cleaning canola impacts all crops.
 
It would be easy to say that grain handlers should clean canola more. This would be shortsighted and miss the impact it would have on growers’ long-term profitability.
 
Meeting the Chinese demand for less than 1% dockage means that Canadian canola is having costs imposed on it that are not imposed on other oilseeds from other countries. These costs are first seen by grain handlers, but they will also be felt by growers.
 
While some shipments from some companies may be achieving premiums to cover these costs now, the costs of meeting it on an industry-wide basis for four million tonnes of canola would be significant. It’s hard to see how premiums could be being sustained on four million tonnes. The canola industry, including growers will be forced to pay this cost.
 
This is why resolving this issue is critical to not only canola but the entire Canadian agriculture industry.
 
As an industry, we need to look further down the road than the next trade. Accepting costs without scientific justification today tells others we’ll accept it in the future.
 
Source : Albertacanola

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2025 USDA December Crop Report a “Dud” + Trump $12 Billion U.S. Farm Aid

Video: 2025 USDA December Crop Report a “Dud” + Trump $12 Billion U.S. Farm Aid


The USDA December crop report was friendly corn, neutral soybeans and bearish wheat. The USDA did surprise and increase the 25/26 U.S. corn export forecast to a new record high at 3.2 billion bushels now up 12% vs. last year vs. prior at +9% vs. the export pace to date up 30% the best in 10 years even higher than 20/21! The USDA left the 25/26 U.S. soybean export pace unchanged at 1.635 billion bushels. Higher global wheat supplies will remain a weight and headwind for wheat into year end and start of 2026.
Mexico is now the #1 buyer of U.S. corn, soybeans (usually China), wheat and pork!
USDA also released its long-term early projections but expect more changes by February of 2026.
Trump announces a $12 billion U.S. farmer aid package to be paid out by February 28, 2026. This helps no one but the ag banks, farm equipment companies, seed and fertilizer companies. It does prevent more farmer bushels from being sold near-term but is not bullish grain prices long-term. The Trump administration should focus on increasing U.S. domestic demand and propping up grain futures so farmers can cover their higher costs, up since COVID of 2020.
The China U.S. soybean purchase tracker now stands at 4.521 mmt or 38% of the 12 mmt promised by China at year end or is it end of February or the growing season? Why the discrepancy vs. the fact sheet. The optics are poor for the Trump administration.
After surging to contract highs U.S. natural gas futures plunged over 30+% in just 5-trading days!
Silver traded to new record highs as the debasement and de dollarization trade continued but technicals remain overbought near-term.
Soybean futures remained in correction mode after the funds went record long futures on Nov. 19 +233,000 contracts but the $10.80 support should hold into year end when the fund profit taking/liquidation comes to an end from the year end, end of month and end of quarter selling.
The U.S. Fed cut interest rates for the 3rd time by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50 – 3.75% and they will only cut one more time in 2026 and once in 20267/ but when Powell is gone next April the replacement is willing to cut more aggressively and we could see U.S. interest rates fall to 2.0% very bullish for ag and stocks as it could reignite inflation into 2027.
After 2 months of being drier than normal in Brazil the rains have finally arrived for the 1st half of December, and a record crop is still in the cards but if this pattern continues and verifies it could start to delay the harvest. Argentina after being too wet has turned dry but they are too small, compared top Brazil in the grand picture.
The Canadian dollar surged to $0.73 after better-than-expected employment data with 180,000 new jobs in the past 3-months and 3rd quarter GDP at +2.6% but this could be short-lived.
The latest CFTC report as of 11-19-2025 reported a record long fund position in soybeans at +233,000 contracts when 2026 March soybean futures peaked on 11-19-25 at $11.724/bu.