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March 2021 Drought Update and Ranch Preparation

By Laura Edwards
 
Following a dry fall and winter season, drought is high on the list of concerns going into the spring season for farmers and ranchers. Current soil moisture measurements show about half of the amount of soil moisture compared to a year ago at this time. Some rivers and streams ended 2020 in the bottom 10th percentile of flow. The current U.S. Drought Monitor as of Feb. 25, 2021 shows 89% of South Dakota in some level of drought, with about 50% in severe drought or worse (Figure 1).
 
Spring precipitation accounts for about 40% of the state’s annual total precipitation. As we enter this critical spring wet period, it is time to watch the weather and climate a little closer and plan for the potential of the current drought to continue or become more severe.
 
Climate Outlook
 
The temperature and precipitation outlooks for March 2021 were released on Feb. 28. This update projects that all of South Dakota has increased likelihood of above average temperatures for the month overall. Certainly, the first week of the month started off very warm, with some daily temperatures 20 to 30 degrees Fahrenheit above average. There are some cooler days expected in the mid-month period, but, overall, warmth will likely keep the monthly average warmer than normal.
 
Precipitation outlook for March 2021
Figure 1. Precipitation outlook for March 2021. Most of western and southern South Dakota are more likely to be drier than average. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center
 
For the west and south, odds are leaning towards a drier-than-average March in South Dakota. For the area that is currently in severe drought, this dry-and-warm outlook is not ideal for soil moisture recharge, the chances of success of early season planting of forages and small grains, nor for pastures that are already parched.
 
Later in the spring and summer, warmer-than-average temperatures are favored across all of the lower 48 states. For South Dakota precipitation, the western half of the state has the highest chances of drier-than-average conditions in the late spring and early summer.
 
Leveraging Resources to Break the Hydro-Illogical Cycle
 
Graphic illustration of the hydro-illogical cycle. The cycle begins with rain, followed by apathy, drought, awareness, concern and then panic.
Figure 2. The “Hydro-Illogical Cycle.” Source: Wilhite (2012)
 
How are you going to manage your operation so that you move from simply reacting to a water shortage (a “crisis”) to being proactive? This is a key concept discussed by Donald Wilhite (2012), the founding director of the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. Specifically, Wilhite says that “Vulnerability to drought is often the direct result of poor planning and resource management.” The worst time to be planning for a drought or dry conditions is when you are experiencing them. That said, it is important to consider the ways in which you can break the “Hydro-Illogical Cycle” outlined in Figure 2.
 
DROUGHT MONITORING
 
There are several ways to break the cycle. First, what are you doing on your operation for drought monitoring? Websites and resources are available to monitor drought conditions, such as the U.S. Drought Monitor, the SDSU Mesonet weather station network, the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Grasscast and lastly, resources from the South Dakota Natural Resources Conservation Service (SD NRCS). All of these resources allow you to pull information about precipitation, temperature, soil moisture, snowpack, vegetation responses and forage production predictions. It can also be beneficial to go back into the historical archives available on many of these sites and assess if the recorded data (for example, precipitation amounts and number of days of rain) matches up with what you remember about the conditions on your operation. Familiarizing yourself now with these tools is one step you can take to move from being reactive to proactive under a moisture shortage.
 
LIMITED MOISTURE PLAN
 
Secondly, do you have a drought plan? A drought plan (or “limited moisture plan” (LMP) if we work on moving ourselves out of the Hydro-Illogical Cycle) is just one tool in your toolbox for dealing with a moisture shortage (UNL). An LMP should include clear communication with your partners. Who else is on the operation that needs to know what is going to happen, why it is happening and when it is going to happen? Further, an LMP should also answer these questions:
  • Does your LMP and the actions it entails relate to your ranch vision and objectives?
  • What are the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (SWOT) associated with a moisture shortage?
  • Have you conducted an inventory of ranch resources?
  • What are the critical/trigger dates you are going to implement for decision making?
  • Another component of an LMP is a monitoring schedule. What are you monitoring, when and how? Is NRCS or Extension involved in helping you set this up?
One more component to consider is what your management strategies are going to be, not just during a moisture shortage, but before and after.
 
Lastly, a strong LMP will allow you to continually review and revise your plan. After all, reflection is critical to moving out of the Hydro-Illogical Cycle, as are resources and partners. 
Source : sdstate.edu

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