March U.S. hog inventory down, reduction in 2025 pork production likely

As of March 1, the United States was home to 74.512 million head of hogs and pigs, down 0.2% from a year ago and 1% from last quarter’s inventory, according to the latest Hogs and Pigs report published Thursday by the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. However, that figure came in 1.4 percentage points below pre-report expectations.

“All numbers are below pre-report expectations, and came in smaller than what analysts had expected, and most numbers are below year-ago levels with just a very few exceptions,” says Lee Schulz, chief economist with Ever.Ag.

Breeding inventory was 5.98 million head, down 0.6% from a year ago and “at least within one percentage point of where analysts had it at, up 0.3% compared to a year ago,” Schulz says.

 At 68.532 million head, market hog inventory was down marginally .2% from the year prior, however that figure was down 1.3 percentage points from where analysts had it.

Between December 2024 and February 2025, 33.701 million pigs were weaned on U.S. farms, down .2% from the same time period a year ago and almost two percentage points below where analysts had for pre-report expectations.

Representing 48% of the U.S. breeding herd, sows farrowed 2.892 million head, a 1.3% decrease from the year prior and a 1.3 percentage point difference from where pre-port expectations had that figure.