Market Movers to Watch for the Week of July 8th, 2024

Jul 04, 2024

This week there are five key reports to watch that could have significant impacts on commodity markets the week of July 8th, 2024. This Farms.com column tracks key events in commodity marketing impacting the agriculture industry! The series of article shares issues to watch the following week, issues that may have an impact on commodity prices in the coming weeks.

By Devin Lashley
Farms.com Risk Management Intern

1. The USDA WASDE Report comes out Friday, July 12^th and might give some hope to farmers as U.S. corn yields may come down, but the USDA may not have enough information to change the yield either way as “rain makes grain.”

If the USDA lowers the yield by 4 bushels, production could fall by 366 million bushels and offset the higher acres and production of 200 million bushels from the June Acreage report. The USDA could also increase 23/24 usage or corn demand to offset the higher stocks from the June 1 quarterly grain stocks report.

2. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data comes out Thursday, July 11th and Friday, July 12th respectively and will likely show a continued decline in inflation. If so, it would increase the chances of the first interest rate cut in September that currently sit at 66.5 percent according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

3. The USDA Crop Progress Report comes out Monday, July 8th and should continue to report lower crop conditions as the reports start to take into account the flooding in the North/Central U.S. with poor to very poor conditions rising.

4. As per previous weeks, farmers need to keep an eye on the weather in Russia, as Southern Russia and eastern Ukraine continue to experience prolonged extreme heat, with temperatures in the low 100s Fahrenheit. Southern Russia, responsible for 47 percent of the country's corn, 40 percent of its wheat, and 32 percent of its sunflower production, is at risk. This dry weather pattern could see the worst start to the 2025 winter wheat planting season in Russia in August.

5. The USDA Drought Monitor comes out Thursday, July 11th and will likely show a mild reduction of droughts in the Midwest due to rainfall that has pretty much covered a good chunk of growing regions. As well as likely a possible mild expansion of droughts along the southern growing regions as heavy heat has been settling over the area.

For daily information and updates on agriculture commodity marketing and price risk management for North American farmers, producers, and agribusiness visit the Farms.com Risk Management Website to subscribe to the program.

Video: Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?

Historically, the USDA December crop report is a non-event or another dud report as the USDA reserves any final supply changes to the final report in January of the following year in this case 2026. But after the longest U.S. government shutdown in history at 43 days and no October crop report will they provide more data/surprise and make an exception?
Our China U.S. soybean purchase tracker is now at 26.6% or a total of 3.2 mmt but for traders it’s taking too long to unfold.
The final Stats Canada production report was bearish canola and wheat projection a record crop in both (it adds to the global glut of supplies) and bullish local corn and soybean prices in Ontario/Quebec thanks to a drought. It will not help the fund flow short-term, the USDA may need to offset it?
A U.S. Fed interest rate cut of another 25-basis point next Wednesday (probability 87.1%) could help fund flow and sentiment in stock and ag commodities into year end.
More inflows into Bitcoin this past week saw prices rebound back above 90,000 with support at 82,000 and resistance at 96,000.
A V-shaped bottom in cattle suggest the lows are in after Mexico reported another new world screwworm case. Lower weights, seasonal demand and higher U.S. beef select/choice values with a continued closure of the Mexican border to cattle will result in a resumption of higher cattle futures into yearend.
Australia is expected to produce its 3rd largest wheat crop ever at 36 mmt adding to the global glut of supplies.
Reports of ASF in hogs in Spain the largest pork exporter in Europe could see the U.S. win more pork export business long-term.
If the rains verify into next week of 3-5 inches for Brazil it would go a long way to fixing the dry regions from the last 2-months, but the European weather model has been wrong for the past 2-months!
Natural gas futures are surging to the 3rd price count as frigid hold temps set in.
CDN $ is also surging to end the week on a very resilient economy and better employment numbers suggesting no interest rate cuts next week.
Finally, the CFTC report showed funds were net buyers of soybeans but sellers of corn, canola and wheat. In real time the funds have gone back to selling as they take some profits.