What can the pork industry expect from the markets in 2026? Some experts agree the stage is set for more stability, but at the same time there’s less margin for error.
“Trade risk was a significant factor towards the end of 2024, especially with all the talk of higher tariffs on Mexico and Canada. That risk has subsided, in our view,” says Altin Kalo, chief economist at Steiner Consulting. “The U.S. administration has also made significant progress is defining terms of trade with other countries. China is a wild card, but that will always be the case.”
The continued spread of African swine fever (ASF) in Europe highlights that the U.S. remains a stable supplier. With another year of mild feed costs and steady supplies, Brian Earnest, lead economist, animal protein at CoBank, says it is important that producers look at their products and how those products can best serve U.S. and international consumers.
Kalo believes the big corn crop and large carryout is setting the stage for a more profitable 2026, something that was less certain at the end of 2024.
Chris Ford, vice president corporate swine lender with Farm Credit, agrees the U.S. is in a stronger financial and herd health position as compared to early 2025, when balance sheets were still recovering from one of the most severe downturns in history.
However, Lee Schulz, chief economist at Ever.Ag, cautions producers to remain disciplined in production and marketing.
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