Very low August rainfall for the Midwest triggered a 1.4-bushel-per-acre reduction in the 2013/14 U.S. soybean yield forecast to 41.2 bushels. This year’s soybean crop is expected to total 3.149 billion bushels—down 106 million against last month’s forecast. Despite a lowering of 2013/14 exports and domestic use, a reduced soybean crop cuts this month’s forecast of season-ending stocks by 70 million bushels to 150 million. As a consequence, USDA raised its forecast of the U.S. season-average farm price for 2013/14 to $11.50-$13.50 per bushel from $10.35-$12.35 last month.
In Brazil, strengthening soybean prices are expected to raise its 2013/14 soybean area by 4 percent to 28.9 million hectares. That could boost Brazil’s soybean crop to a record 88 million metric tons, which—if realized—would top U.S. production (85.7 million) for the first time. Soybean export expansion from Brazil in 2013/14 to a record 42.5 million tons would intensify the competition with U.S. exports.
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