Persistent Losses Leave Farmers Needing Economic Support

By Faith Parum and Daniel Munch

Key Takeaways

• Global instability is pushing production costs higher. Fertilizer and fuel costs were already elevated heading into 2026, and the conflict with Iran has added further pressure to those markets.
• AFBF analysis shows losses are expected to deepen in 2027. AFBF estimates that without federal assistance, farmers growing nine principal crops will lose $32 billion (national average returns over total costs) in 2027, compared to $31 billion in 2026. On a per-acre basis, every crop analyzed is projected to remain below breakeven in 2027.
• Fruit, vegetable, nut and other specialty crop losses remain largely uncovered. AFBF estimates farmers growing six representative crops faced more than $7 billion in 2025 losses. The ASCF program provides welcome relief, but payment rates cover only about 5% to 28% of estimated 2025 per-acre losses for the crops analyzed. Available 2026 data show difficult market conditions continue, including below-breakeven prices, acreage reductions and weak margins across major specialty crop sectors.