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Quebec market gardeners are switching to less risky large-scale crops

The threat that climate change poses to Quebec’s food security is no longer theoretical: the Association des producteurs maraîchers du Québec (APMQ) says its members, severely affected by extreme weather events, are producing less and less food for Quebecers.

“Producers are reorienting their activities to large-scale cultivation where the capacity to operate a farm and risk management are much less important than for a market garden farm,” says the association’s general manager Patrice Léger Bourgouin. Large-scale cultivation crops include grain corn, soybeans, cereals, forage crops and beans, among others.

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The torrential rains this summer had a catastrophic effect for a majority of produce farmers growing small fruits, vegetables for processing and root vegetables like potatoes.

A survey carried out among 250 producers shows significant production losses, with a majority of crops affected not only by rain, but also by frost or hail.

Three-quarters of respondents detected fungal diseases in their crops, a majority expect losses from storing waterlogged produce and half of respondents anticipate difficulties next summer due to rotten plants standing, broken, uprooted or affected by disease.

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Wheat Yields in USA and China Threatened by Heat Waves Breaking Enzymes

Video: Wheat Yields in USA and China Threatened by Heat Waves Breaking Enzymes

A new peer reviewed study looks at the generally unrecognized risk of heat waves surpassing the threshold for enzyme damage in wheat.

Most studies that look at crop failure in the main food growing regions (breadbaskets of the planet) look at temperatures and droughts in the historical records to assess present day risk. Since the climate system has changed, these historical based risk analysis studies underestimate the present-day risks.

What this new research study does is generate an ensemble of plausible scenarios for the present climate in terms of temperatures and precipitation, and looks at how many of these plausible scenarios exceed the enzyme-breaking temperature of 32.8 C for wheat, and exceed the high stress yield reducing temperature of 27.8 C for wheat. Also, the study considers the possibility of a compounded failure with heat waves in both regions simultaneously, this greatly reducing global wheat supply and causing severe shortages.

Results show that the likelihood (risk) of wheat crop failure with a one-in-hundred likelihood in 1981 has in today’s climate become increased by 16x in the USA winter wheat crop (to one-in-six) and by 6x in northeast China (to one-in-sixteen).

The risks determined in this new paper are much greater than that obtained in previous work that determines risk by analyzing historical climate patterns.

Clearly, since the climate system is rapidly changing, we cannot assume stationarity and calculate risk probabilities like we did traditionally before.

We are essentially on a new planet, with a new climate regime, and have to understand that everything is different now.