Rebuilding Hay Supplies

By Derrell S. Peel

The latest Crop Production report from USDA-NASS included the May 1 hay stocks for the U.S. and states. Total U.S. hay stocks were 14.9 million tons, down 2.9 percent year over year. However, May 1 hay stocks in 2018 were also small. The 2019 figure is down 31.4 percent from the five-year 2014-2018 average and 28.8 percent lower than the ten-year average from 2009-2018. The 2019 hay crop year is starting with current hay inventories the smallest since the drought years of 2012-2013. More states had smaller year over year May 1 hay stocks than increases but states with the largest stocks were mostly up including Texas (up 33.6 percent); South Dakota (down 3.2 percent); Montana (up 120.0 percent); Nebraska (up 52.9 percent) and North Dakota (38.9 percent). These five states accounted for 39.7 percent of total May 1 hay stocks.

Hay production data is reported as all hay; and in two sub-categories: alfalfa and other hay. Total hay production in 2018 was 123.6 million tons, down 3.6 percent year over year and down 9.1 percent over the previous ten-year (2008-2017) period. 2018 alfalfa hay production was down 5.7 percent year over year and was 14.7 percent lower than the previous ten-year average. Other hay production was 2.0 percent lower year over year and was down 4.4 percent from the 2008-2017 average.

Table 1 shows the top ten states for all hay; alfalfa hay; and other hay production for the 2009-2018 average. Over this ten year period alfalfa hay has averaged 44.9 percent of total hay production and other hay accounting for 55.1 percent. The top-ten all hay production states accounted for 45.8 percent of all hay production. The top-ten alfalfa hay producing states represented 59.4 percent of alfalfa hay production; while the top-ten other hay producing states accounted for 55.0 percent of other hay production.

Table 1.  Hay Production Top Ten States (2009-2018 Average)