Record-High 2025/26 US Corn Supplies Support Elevated Corn Exports

U.S. old and new corn crop export forecasts are both raised this month on increased price competitiveness and the slower-than-expected pace of shipments from Argentina and Brazil. 2024/25 U.S. corn exports were raised 50 million bushels this month to 2,600 million, the highest since the 2020/21 marketing year, when exports reached 2,747 million bushels (figure 1).

Recent trade developments combine with the strong pace of old-crop movement to provide support for the new-crop export projection of 2,675 million bushels—up 75 million bushels from the revised 2024/25 forecast. Higher projected total utilization is more than offset by the impact of expanded corn supplies,  resulting in an outyear stock-to-use ratio that is currently forecast at 11.6 percent, 2.4 percent above the 2024/25 ratio.

Projections for larger U.S. corn supplies and ending stocks support a year-to-year decline in the season-average farm price, currently projected at $4.20/bushel for the 2025/26 marketing year, down 15 cents from 2024/25.