Reflections on Birth of Renewable Fuel Standard Offer Direction for Advocates

Sep 01, 2025

By Lesly Weber McNitt

Twenty years ago this month, the president signed into law the Energy Policy Act of 2005 establishing the Renewable Fuel Standard, a development that reshaped the rural economy and provided immeasurable benefits to people across the country.

The standard, which required fuel sold in the United States to contain renewable fuel blends (like ethanol) capped at 10%, was a boon to rural economies, a tool for policymakers and regulators seeking to lower greenhouse gas emissions and a diversification strategy to those concerned about U.S. energy security.

The law’s enactment established the corn grower community as a political powerhouse. As Jon Doggett, the vice president of public policy at the National Corn Growers Association at the time, recently noted, corn growers were united and motivated at the time and as a result caught the attention of Congress like never before.

I would eventually work for Jon when I first came to NCGA in 2017. By then, corn was a mover and shaker on every level politically, and the 10% cap on ethanol had long since been removed.

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Video: Spring 2026 weather outlook for Wisconsin; What an early-arriving El Niño could mean

Northeast Wisconsin is a small corner of the world, but our weather is still affected by what happens across the globe.

That includes in the equatorial Pacific, where changes between El Niño and La Niña play a role in the weather here -- and boy, have there been some abrupt changes as of late.

El Niño and La Niña are the two phases of what is collectively known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO for short. These are the swings back and forth from unusually warm to unusually cold sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean along the equator.

Since this past September, we have been in a weak La Niña, which means water temperatures near the Eastern Pacific equator have been cooler than usual. That's where we're at right now.

Even last fall, the long-term outlook suggested a return to neutral conditions by spring and potentially El Niño conditions by summer.

But there are some signs this may be happening faster than usual, which could accelerate the onset of El Niño.

Over the last few weeks, unusually strong bursts of westerly winds farther west in the Pacific -- where sea surface temperatures are warmer than average -- have been observed. There is a chance that this could accelerate the warming of those eastern Pacific waters and potentially push us into El Niño sooner than usual.

If we do enter El Nino by spring -- which we'll define as the period of March, April and May -- there are some long-term correlations with our weather here in Northeast Wisconsin.

Looking at a map of anomalously warm weather, most of the upper Great Lakes doesn't show a strong correlation, but in general, the northern tiers of the United States do tend to lean to that direction.

The stronger correlation is with precipitation. El Niño conditions in spring have historically come with a higher risk of very dry weather over that time frame, so this will definitely be a transition we'll have to watch closely as we move out of winter.