Ron Plain: Hog Outlook

Nov 12, 2011

Hog Outlook

Ron Plain
University of Missouri
November 11, 2011

Canada's October 1 swine inventory survey said their swine herd was up 0.9%. The number of sows and bred gilts was up 0.2%. Their inventory of market hogs was up 1%.

The Canadian survey said there were 1.7% fewer sows farrowed in Canada in July-September than a year ago. They predicted October-December farrowings would be down 0.9% and January-March farrowing down 0.4%.

Like the U.S., Canadian hog producers are producing more pigs per litter. Although the number of litters farrowed in the third quarter was down 1.7%, the pig crop was a small fraction higher than last year.

USDA's November supply and demand estimates raised the forecast of 2012 barrow prices on a live weight basis by $1 to $63-68/cwt.

USDA is forecasting 2012 pork production will be up 1.7% but total red meat and poultry production is expected to be down 1.6%.

The pork cutout was lower again this week. USDA's Thursday afternoon calculated cutout value was $90.80/cwt, down $2.73 from the previous Thursday. Loins, butts, hams and bellies were all lower.

Hog prices also dropped this week. The national average negotiated carcass price for direct delivered hogs on the morning report today was $81.99/cwt, down $4.07 from last Friday. The Friday morning price report for the western corn belt was $81.84/cwt and for Iowa-Minnesota was $81.83/cwt. Eastern corn belt hogs averaged $82.64 this morning. Friday's top live hog price at Peoria was $57/cwt. Zumbrota's top was $60/cwt. The top for interior Missouri live hogs was $60.75/cwt, down $1.50 from the previous Friday.

Hog slaughter totaled 2.293 million head this week, down 2.3% from the week before and down 0.9% compared to the same week last year.

Barrow and gilt carcass weights for the week ending October 29 averaged 204 pounds, up 1 pound from the week before and down 1 pound from a year ago. Iowa-Minnesota live weights for barrows and gilts last week averaged 274.7 pounds, up 1.2 pounds from the week before, but down 1.2 pounds compared to last year.

Today's close for the December lean hog futures contract, $86.45/cwt, was down 40 cents from last Friday. The February lean hog futures contract settled at $87.75/cwt, down $2.35 from the previous Friday. April lost $2.10 this week to settle at $91.05/cwt.

The seasonal trend is for lower hog prices until early December.

Video: Time To Build An Ark: Sheltering Our Flock From Adverse Weather Conditions!

Relentless spring rains are drenching our sheep farm! Despite the downpour, our sheep are fortunate to have a cozy and dry shelter in our barns. Our barns are equipped with curtains on all sides, allowing us to adjust the amount of natural light and fresh air that enters. Whether it's opening them wide to create an outdoor-like environment or shutting them tight to keep the sheep snug and content, our barns provide the perfect refuge from the harsh weather conditions outside.

While we appreciate the nourishing rain that will eventually result in lush pastures and abundant hay during the summer, we are grateful that our sheep are not exposed to the elements and remain healthy. Join us as we lay fresh bedding in every barn, ensuring our sheep's comfort and well-being. Witness the joy of our lambs frolicking in the straw, a true testament to their happiness.

Despite our usual practice of avoiding shipping sheep during adverse weather, today we had to transport a few breeding ewes and a ram to a customer with an inflexible schedule. Discover the breeding stock chosen by the customer and witness how we carefully load them for transport.

Rain or shine, the work on a sheep farm never stops. However, having a sheltered space makes these challenging days a little more bearable. Join us on our vlog as we navigate through the rainy season, providing the best care for our flock. Welcome to Ewetopia Farms, where we document our daily sheep farming activities on our vlog. Subscribe now to stay updated on our sheep farming journey!