Some Midwest Soybeans Are Headed to China. But Farmers Still Need Other Buyers

Nov 04, 2025

By Will Bauer

After a months-long standoff, China has agreed to buy 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans this year – less than half of what the country has historically purchased.

U.S. soybean farmers this fall had faced the grim reality of losing their largest foreign buyer, until President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping struck a deal last week. Still, many are holding onto their soybeans, waiting for better prices or selling them to be processed domestically.

“China buys, traditionally, about half the soybeans we export, and we can't replace that amount with domestic usage. It's impossible,” said Tanner Ehmke, an economist with agricultural lender CoBank. “Even if we did, we would have a tremendous amount of soybean meal that we'd need to find a home for.”

China has committed to buy 25 million metric tons of soybeans annually over the next three years, which tracks far closer to what the Asian giant had been buying before the trade war.

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Video: Midwest Weather Shock: Flash Drought Turns Into Heavy Rain Threat This Week (2026 Forecast)

A rapidly changing Midwest weather pattern is unfolding in 2026 as areas that recently slipped into abnormal dryness and flash drought conditions are now facing the threat of heavy rain and repeated storm systems.

After a wet spring erased early drought conditions, regions across Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and northern Missouri have quickly dried out again since mid-to-late May. Soil moisture is dropping fast, and crops like corn and soybeans are beginning to feel the stress of rising temperatures and lack of consistent rainfall. Now, weather models show a major shift.

A developing system moving in from the Northern Plains is expected to bring multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms, with the potential for locally heavy rainfall across the Midwest. While some areas may miss out, others could finally see much-needed relief from the growing dryness. In this video, we break down:

Current drought conditions across the Midwest

Why a flash drought is developing quickly

Timing and path of incoming storm systems

Which states are most likely to see heavy rain

How long this wet pattern could last

Will this rain end the drought or create new flooding risks? Watch the full forecast to find out.