The June 25 seeded acreage report from Statistics Canada may not contain many price movers, but it does show interesting trends.
Canaryseed was arguably the biggest surprise. In April, the agency’s seeding intentions report showed canaryseed dropping to just 190,000 acres. Many observers, including me, believed the acreage would not actually be that low.
Instead, the June 25 report shows a mere 165,000 acres, a drop of 45 percent from last year and the lowest number since the 1980s.
Saskatchewan is the world’s largest exporter of canaryseed and the official stocks-to-use ratio is already tight, so logic would say that prices will have to rise.
Unfortunately, the market to date has not been logical.
Some producers have been holding canaryseed for years, waiting to cash in, and therefore no one truly knows the level of on-farm stocks. Nor do we know if the marketplace will pay up if supplies actually become difficult to source.
Prairie-wide flax acreage of more than 1.1 million acres isn’t a surprise, but it’s amazing to see the rapid drop in Manitoba, where acreage is down 45 percent from last year. Not too many years ago, Manitoba grew most of the nation’s flax. Now it’s down to just 85,000 acres.
Incredibly, Alberta now grows more flax than Manitoba. Alberta acreage has increased by 80 percent from last year hitting 90,000 acres. Saskatchewan remains the flax king with 960,000 acres, an increase of more than 20 percent from last year.
China is now a major customer for Canadian flax, and the western Prairies have a freight advantage for shipping out of Vancouver. As well, flax in Manitoba has probably been affected by the big switch to soybeans.
Source: Producer