The World Bank is projecting global commodity prices will fall in 2025 and 2026, with tariffs helping to weigh on corn, wheat, and soybeans.
Released Tuesday, the World Bank’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook forecasts a 12% fall in world commodity prices in 2025, followed by a further 5% decline in 2026. Meanwhile, food prices are also expected to recede, falling by 7% in 2025 and an additional 1% next year.
All three components of the World Bank’s Food Price index are expected to decline in 2025, the report said, with grains down 11%, and oils and meals, and other foods, by 7% and 5%, respectively.
Corn prices are forecast to edge down by 2% in both 2025 and 2026, weighed down by lower crude oil prices, which reduce demand for ethanol, and “increased tariffs on U.S.-China trade,” the report said.
Soybean prices are projected to tumble by 17% in 2025, as global production is expected to rise by 6% to a new record in the 2024- 25 season, with the stocks-to-use ratio climbing close to its 2018-19 record high. Weaker imports of U.S. soybeans in China, amid heightened trade tensions, are expected to weigh on the U.S. benchmark price.
Wheat prices are forecast to edge slightly in 2025-26, as downward demand pressure related to trade tensions is partially offset by tight supply conditions. Near-record wheat production is expected to be narrowly outpaced by consumption, resulting in a decline in global stocks, the report said.
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