Farms.com Home   News

Trade Keeps Close Eye On South America Drought

With the release of the USDA WASDE report this week, there was plenty of talk surrounding the weather in South America.

Dan Basse is President of AgResource Company in Chicago.

"It's one of the worst droughts we can find looking backwards in four decades. Southern Brazil, Argentina have been enduring drought going all the way back now to the middle of November. That drought looks to persist. The forecasts are dry for at least another couple of weeks," he said. "Crop numbers are declining and we would expect USDA and future reports to make those adjustments also. Ultimately, we think there may be another nine million metric tons fall in the Brazilian crop, maybe another three or four in Argentina and two in Paraguay."

Basse says that will add up to about another fourteen million metric tons and that will probably get us close to where we need to be with soybeans trading just below $16 a bushel in Chicago.

Click here to see more...

Trending Video

USDA Feb Crop Report a WIN for Soybeans + 1 Year Trade Truce Extension

Video: USDA Feb Crop Report a WIN for Soybeans + 1 Year Trade Truce Extension


USDA took Trumps comments that China would buy more U.S. soybeans seriously and headline news that the U.S./China trade truce would be extended when Trump/Xi meet in the first week of April was a BIG WIN for soybeans this week! 2026 “Mini” U.S. ethanol boom thanks to 45Z + China’s ban of phosphates from Feb. – August of 2026 will not help lower fertilizer prices anytime soon! 30 mmt of Chinese corn harvest is of poor quality and maybe a technical breakout in wheat futures.

*Apologies! Where we talk about the latest CFTC update as of 10th Feb 2026, managed money funds covered their net short position in canola to the tune of +42,746 week-on-week to flip to net long 145 contracts and not (as we mistakenly said) +90,009 wk/wk to 47,408.