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US/China Trade Negotiations Continue

It's a big week for trade in the US, and Canada will be impacted on both fronts.
 
On Wednesday, the US and China signed the first phase of their new trade deal. The US still plans to keep the tariff war going for now, while phase 2 of the trade deal is worked out.
 
On the 2nd front, The US Senate is expected to vote today on the new NAFTA.
 
The expected vote promises sweeping bipartisan support for the legislation that will replace the original NAFTA. Most farm groups in Canada support the deal, but Canada's supply-managed dairy industry isn't as excited.
 
They're being forced to give up more market share to the US. The Trudeau government has been promising them billions in compensation for the loss of that market share.
 
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USDA Feb Crop Report a WIN for Soybeans + 1 Year Trade Truce Extension

Video: USDA Feb Crop Report a WIN for Soybeans + 1 Year Trade Truce Extension


USDA took Trumps comments that China would buy more U.S. soybeans seriously and headline news that the U.S./China trade truce would be extended when Trump/Xi meet in the first week of April was a BIG WIN for soybeans this week! 2026 “Mini” U.S. ethanol boom thanks to 45Z + China’s ban of phosphates from Feb. – August of 2026 will not help lower fertilizer prices anytime soon! 30 mmt of Chinese corn harvest is of poor quality and maybe a technical breakout in wheat futures.

*Apologies! Where we talk about the latest CFTC update as of 10th Feb 2026, managed money funds covered their net short position in canola to the tune of +42,746 week-on-week to flip to net long 145 contracts and not (as we mistakenly said) +90,009 wk/wk to 47,408.