Corn Production Down Slightly from October Forecast
Soybean Production Up Less Than 1 Percent
Cotton Production Up Less Than 1 Percent
Orange Production Unchanged
Small Grains Update
Survey respondents who reported barley, oats, Durum wheat, or other spring wheat acreage as not yet harvested in Colorado, Idaho, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming during the surveys conducted in preparation for the Small Grains 2014 Summary, released September 30, 2014, were re-contacted in late October to determine how many of those acres were actually harvested and record the actual production from those acres. Based on this updated information, several changes were made to the estimates published in the Small Grains 2014 Summary. Because unharvested production is a component of on-farm stocks, changes were made to the September 1 on-farm stocks levels comparable with the production adjustments.
Corn production is forecast at 14.4 billion bushels, down slightly from the previous forecast, but up 3 percent from 2013. Based on conditions as of November 1, yields are expected to average 173.4 bushels per acre, down 0.8 bushel from the previous forecast but 14.6 bushels above the 2013 average. If realized, this will be the highest yield and production on record for the United States. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 83.1 million acres, unchanged from the previous forecast but down 5 percent from 2013.
Soybean production is forecast at a record 3.96 billion bushels, up less than 1 percent from October and up 18 percent from last year. Based on November 1 conditions, yields are expected to average a record high 47.5 bushels per acre, up 0.4 bushel from last month and up 3.5 bushels from last year. Area for harvest in the United States is forecast at a record 83.4 million acres, unchanged from last month.
All cotton production is forecast at 16.4 million 480-pound bales, up less than 1 percent from last month and up 27 percent from last year. Yield is expected to average 797 pounds per harvested acre, down 24 pounds from last year. Upland cotton production is forecast at 15.8 million 480-pound bales, up 29 percent from 2013. Pima cotton production, forecast at 578,000 bales, was carried forward from last month.
The United States all orange forecast for the 2014-2015 season is 6.96 million tons, unchanged from the previous forecast but up 3 percent from the 2013 - 2014 final utilization. The Florida all orange forecast, at 108 million boxes (4.86 million tons), is up 3 percent from last season's final utilization. Early, midseason, and Navel varieties in Florida are forecast at 52.0 million boxes (2.34 million tons), down 2 percent from last season's final utilization. The Florida Valencia orange forecast, at 56.0 million boxes (2.52 million tons), is up 9 percent from last season's final utilization. In Florida, citrus growing conditions were ideal from the beginning of the citrus bloom to the start of the 2014-2015 season harvest. Arizona, California, and Texas forecasts are carried forward from October.
Florida frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) yield forecast for the 2014-2015 season is 1.60 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, unchanged from the October forecast but up 2 percent from last season's final yield of 1.57 gallons per box. Projected yield from the 2014-2015 Early-Midseason and Valencia varieties will be published in the January Crop Production report. All projections of yield assume the processing relationships this season will be similar to those of the past several seasons.
Source: USDA