COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2018/19 U.S. corn outlook is for reduced beginning stocks, lower feed and residual use, greater corn used for ethanol production, and lower ending stocks. Beginning stocks are down largely reflecting a 75-million-bushel increase in projected exports for 2017/18 to 2.300 billion bushels, which if realized would be the highest since 2007/08. Exports during the month of April were record high, besting the prior monthly shipment record set in November 1989. Export inspection data for the month of May implies continued robust global demand for U.S. corn, while old crop outstanding sales at this point in the marketing year are record high. Projected 2018/19 corn used for ethanol is raised 50 million bushels, offsetting a 50-million-bushel reduction in food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use of sorghum. Corn feed and residual use is lowered 25 million bushels with increased ethanol by-product production and higher expected prices. With supply falling and use rising, ending stocks are lowered 105 million bushels to 1.577 billion bushels, which if realized, would be the lowest level since 2013/14. The season-average farm price is raised 10 cents at the midpoint with a range of $3.40 to $4.40 per bushel.
The 2018/19 U.S. sorghum outlook is for a 50-million-bushel increase in forecast exports offset by reduced FSI use. Exports are raised reflecting expectations of China’s demand for U.S. sorghum, based on the announcement by The Ministry of Commerce May 18 terminating the anti-dumping and subsidy investigation on imported sorghum originating from the United States.
This month’s 2018/19 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, reduced trade and lower stocks relative to last month. Russia corn production is down based on government data indicating lower-than-expected planted area. Barley production is reduced for Ukraine, India, and the EU, but raised for Argentina. For 2017/18, Brazil corn production is lowered, as below-normal rainfall in the Center-West and South during May reduces yield prospects for second-crop corn. Area is also reduced based on the latest government statistics.
Major global trade changes for 2018/19 include lower forecast corn exports for Russia, with reductions in corn imports for Vietnam, Iran, and Algeria. Foreign corn ending stocks are lowered from last month, mostly reflecting reductions for the EU, Brazil, and Vietnam that more than offset increases for Ukraine and South Africa.