Weakening Farm Income Prospects Weigh on Farmer Sentiment

In a sharp turnaround from July, farmer sentiment nose-dived in August. The August Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer fell 13 points vs. July, leaving the index at 100, while the Index of Current Conditions fell 17 points to 83, and the Index of Futures Expectations shed 11 points to a reading of 108. 

Weakening farm income prospects weighed on farmer sentiment as the outlook for a bountiful fall harvest were more than offset by declining crop prices. This month’s decline in the barometer takes farmer sentiment back to the average level observed from fall 2015 to winter 2016, a period when farm incomes were declining sharply. The weakness in farmer sentiment could indicate that farmers expect this year’s farm income downturn to last for an extended period. Data collection for the August survey took place Aug. 12-16, 2024.

Over the last several months, farmers’ concerns about weakening commodity prices have become more evident in barometer surveys. In the August survey, producers’ concerns about commodity prices nearly eclipsed what has consistently been their top concern: high input prices. This month, 30% of respondents picked lower commodity prices as a top concern compared to 33% who chose high input costs. This was a marked departure from a year earlier when just 20% of survey respondents pointed to weak commodity prices as a top concern for their farm operation. At the same time, fewer respondents chose rising interest rates as a top concern. This month, 17% of respondents pointed to interest rates as a top issue, down from 24% a year ago. In a related question, two-thirds (68%) of respondents said they expect interest rates to fall during the upcoming year, while only 19% said they look for rates to rise.

The August Farm Financial Performance Index fell 9 points below a month earlier and was 14 points lower than a year ago. This month’s reading was the weakest response to the financial performance question since July 2020, when COVID-related lockdowns still dominated the headlines. Consistent with expectations for weak financial conditions, producers again signaled that the investment climate in production agriculture is also poor as the Farm Capital Investment Index fell 7 points to 31. This month’s investment index was also 6 points lower than a year earlier and matched the index’s all-time lowest reading.