Weather Disruptions Prop Up Prices, But Demand Concerns Persist

Mar 06, 2023

Hog slaughter was lower last week as snowstorms disrupted the transportation of hogs to processing facilities. U.S. hog producers are still incentivized to pull hogs forward as current prices are below the cost of production.

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Highlights

Hog slaughter was lower last week as snowstorms disrupted the transportation of hogs to processing facilities. U.S. hog producers are still incentivized to pull hogs forward as current prices are below the cost of production.
Pork belly inventory at the end of January was a little over 70 million pounds, 57% higher than a year ago. Ample freezer inventories should keep belly prices in check through March. Higher prices are expected in Q2.
Pork exports have been trending higher in recent weeks as world buyers take advantage of the attractive prices in the U.S. market. U.S. hog prices currently are trading at a discount to both the EU and Brazil (see page 30 of this report).
Two consecutive weeks of big sales to Mexico have helped bolster prices for bone-in hams. Boneless ham prices, however, are running below year-ago levels as higher prices at retail have curtailed some of the domestic demand.

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Video: Season 7, Episode 1: Managing Risk and Seeing Opportunities in U.S. Pork Production

Today’s episode features three guests discussing the similarities and differences between pork production in the United States and Brazil, along with strategies for managing risk in today’s industry while recognizing and acting on opportunities. First, Dr. Anne Caroline de Lara, executive manager of live pig production at Seara Alimentos, a JBS company in Brazil, is joined by Dr. Matthew Turner, head of operations for JBS Live Pork. Together, they discuss how labor, climate and ventilation challenges vary between Brazil and the United States, while underscoring their shared commitment to raising healthy pigs. They also point to lessons producers in both countries can take from one another’s systems and on-farm experiences. Then, Brady Reicks, risk manager at Reicks View Farms, shares his perspective on risk management, drawing from his background in markets and his transition into farming. He discusses how protecting margins varies by operation and offers practical approaches producers can use to make marketing and business decisions with greater confidence rather than hesitation.

Both conversations were recorded at recent industry events focused on swine livability, including the International Conference on Pig Livability and Iowa Swine Day.