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Weekly Crop Comments

 

Price

Change

US Dollar

82.45

-0.51

Crude

93.84

+1.54

Dow

14,514

+117

Corn, cotton and wheat prices are up while soybean prices are down for the week. U.S. stocks fell Friday ending the longest winning streak for the Dow in nearly 17 years. Prior to today, the Dow had closed up 10 straight days. Watch for the market to become sensitive to planting weather as planters start to roll. March 28 will be an important date to watch as the Prospective Planting and Grain Stocks reports are released. It generally has been a market mover. One private survey released today looks for corn acreage down from last year, soybean acres up, and wheat acreage up relative to 2012.

Corn:
Nearby:

Corn

Price
$/bushel

Change

May

7.17

+0.13 1/2

Support

7.09

+0.31

Resistance

7.24

+0.24

Technical

Buy

++

20 Day MA

7.00

+0.05

50 Day MA

7.09

+0.01

100 Day MA

7.21

-0.02


Weekly exports were well above expectations with net sales of 25.7 million bushels (net sales of 11.1 million bushels for the 2012/13 marketing year and 14.6 million bushels of net sales for the 2013/14 year). Ethanol production dropped 8,000 barrels per day to 797,000 barrels per day in the latest report.

New Crop:

Corn

Price
$/bushel

Change

September

5.86 3/4

+0.15 1/2

Support

5.74

+0.18

Resistance

5.90

+0.17

Technical

Sell

+

20 Day MA

5.78

=

50 Day MA

5.94

-0.03

100 Day MA

6.20

-0.04


At least one private acreage survey estimates corn acres to drop 199,000 acres from last year to 96.956 million acres. Currently, I would have 10% of 2013 production priced. If prices move to the $6 range, that may present a good opportunity for pricing

Soybeans:
Nearby:

Soybeans

Price
$/bushel

Change

May

14.26

-0.45

Support

14.08

-0.26

Resistance

14.54

-0.49

Technical

Sell

---

20 Day MA

14.53

+0.09

50 Day MA

14.34

+0.05

100 Day MA

14.32

=


Weekly exports were within expectations with net sales of 28.8 million bushels (net sales of 24.2 million bushels for 2012/13 and net sales of 4.6 million bushels for 2013/14). February soybean crush of 136.3 million bushels as reported by the National Oilseed Processors Association was less than the 141.6 million bushels that the trade expected.  A report of lengthy delays getting soybeans shipped out of Brazilian ports continues to support nearby prices.

New Crop:

Soybeans

Price
$/bushel

Change

November

12.61

-0.07 1/2

Support

12.49

+0.02

Resistance

12.71

-0.22

Technical

Strong Sell

=

20 Day MA

12.68

-0.02

50 Day MA

12.87

-0.04

100 Day MA

13.00

-0.03


A private acreage estimate of 78.3 million acres for 2013 if realized would be 1.12 million acres more than last year. I would have up to 10% priced on 2013 production. I think there may be an opportunity for additional pricing at higher levels or an opportunity to put in place an option strategy. If the market can get back to $13, I would closely at prices in that range.

Wheat:
Nearby:  
 

Wheat

Price
$/bushel

Change

May

7.23

+0.26

Support

7.14

+0.34

Resistance

7.29

+0.18

Technical

Sell

+

20 Day MA

7.14

-0.09

50 Day MA

7.48

-0.07

100 Day MA

8.04

-0.08


Weekly exports were well above expectations at net sales of 39.9 million bushels (32.6 million bushels for 2012/13 and net sales of 7.3 million bushels for 2013/14). Anticipation this week that strong feed usage of wheat will increase demand has sparked prices. Demand from feedlots increased when one railway cut its fees for shipping soft red winter wheat from the Midwest to the Plains.

New Crop:

Wheat

Price
$/bushel

Change

July

7.21 1/4

+0.22 1/2

Support

7.09

+0.26

Resistance

7.28

+0.15

Technical

Sell

+

20 Day MA

7.16

-0.10

50 Day MA

7.52

-0.08

100 Day MA

8.02

-0.06


A private survey pegged all wheat acres at 56.3 million acres, up 525,000 acres from 2012. Markets will closely be watching wheat conditions in the Plains as we enter spring. I am currently priced 10% on the 2013 crop.

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