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Nov 21, 2022

The USDA's November World Agricultural Supply Demand Estimates report saw an unexpected change.

Dan Basse with Ag Resource Company says the surprise in the report was an increase in yield for US Corn and Soybeans:

"That extra supply ended up coming through in both end-use stocks and U.S. soybean. End-use stocks were up 10 per cent or 20 million bushels to 220 million bushels. The corn was still relatively tight, it was a little under 1.3 billion bushels."

Basse says they believe the larger crop is likely due to the favorable harvest weather for much of September and October.

Basse says it was a surprise to see the yield increases because any increases tend to be carried over to the final report in December.

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Video: Midwest Weather Shock: Flash Drought Turns Into Heavy Rain Threat This Week (2026 Forecast)

A rapidly changing Midwest weather pattern is unfolding in 2026 as areas that recently slipped into abnormal dryness and flash drought conditions are now facing the threat of heavy rain and repeated storm systems.

After a wet spring erased early drought conditions, regions across Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and northern Missouri have quickly dried out again since mid-to-late May. Soil moisture is dropping fast, and crops like corn and soybeans are beginning to feel the stress of rising temperatures and lack of consistent rainfall. Now, weather models show a major shift.

A developing system moving in from the Northern Plains is expected to bring multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms, with the potential for locally heavy rainfall across the Midwest. While some areas may miss out, others could finally see much-needed relief from the growing dryness. In this video, we break down:

Current drought conditions across the Midwest

Why a flash drought is developing quickly

Timing and path of incoming storm systems

Which states are most likely to see heavy rain

How long this wet pattern could last

Will this rain end the drought or create new flooding risks? Watch the full forecast to find out.