Wheat Exports: The Balancing Act of U.S. Wheat

By Faith Parum

Between January and April of this year, the United States imported $78.2 billion worth of agricultural products, the highest value on record. Over the same period, U.S. agricultural exports totaled just $58.5 billion, resulting in a record-setting agricultural trade deficit of nearly $20 billion in just the first four months. However, U.S. wheat exports are projected to reach their highest level in five years during the 2025/26 marketing year. This rebound underscores the importance of foreign market access for wheat farm profitability, the potential for growth under today’s global supply conditions, and the ongoing risks from price pressure, weather volatility and unresolved trade barriers.

Agriculture Trade Balance

While the overall agricultural sector has slipped into a widening trade deficit, wheat remains one of the few U.S. commodities that consistently generates a trade surplus. U.S. wheat exports totaled 826 million bushels in 2024/25 and USDA’s August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) projects 850 million to 875 million bushels in 2025/26.

Agricultural trade is vital as agriculture exports bring in billions in revenue, support rural jobs and help stabilize the farm economy. In 2023, for every $1 of agricultural exports, over $2 is generated in the U.S. economy. For producers, the wheat trade surplus is proof that U.S. farmers can compete globally when markets are open and supply conditions align. Maintaining and expanding access to international markets is essential for wheat to continue offsetting broader agricultural trade deficits.