New economic analysis shows a single week of labour disruptions during peak season causes massive, unrecoverable losses for farmers and exporters.
A new economic analysis commissioned by the Agriculture Transport Coalition has found that just one week of rail and port disruptions during peak export season can cost Canada’s grain sector up to $540 million. The majority of these losses stem from missed export sales that cannot be recovered once shipments are delayed.
The analysis examined the economic impact of labour disruptions across Canada’s rail and port operations during peak grain export periods. It concluded that losses compound rapidly and fall disproportionately on farmers and exporters, who face broken contracts, lost buyers, and long-term reputational damage when shipments fail to move on time.
According to the findings, once export windows are missed, those sales are largely gone for good. Buyers turn to alternative suppliers, forcing Canadian grain producers and exporters to absorb the financial consequences.
Findings Released as Part of National Campaign
The Agriculture Transport Coalition released the analysis as part of its national campaign, Too Much on the Line, which calls on the federal government to reform Canada’s labour relations framework. The campaign argues that without meaningful reform, the risk of future supply chain shutdowns will continue to threaten the economic viability of Canada’s grain sector.
The coalition emphasized that the economic damage does not only occur once operations shut down. The analysis found that even the threat of a work stoppage leads to significant losses, with up to $112 million in missed sales occurring before any official disruption begins.
Farmers Bear the Brunt of the Impact
Canada’s grain sector is uniquely exposed to transportation instability. More than 70 percent of Canadian grain production is exported, and approximately 94 percent of those exports move by rail. This high reliance on rail and port infrastructure means even short-lived disruptions can bring the system to an immediate halt.
“Every time grain stops moving, the consequences are immediate and unrecoverable,” said Bruce Burrows, executive director of Grain Growers of Canada. “Missed sales, broken contracts, and a reputation as a reliable supplier that takes years to rebuild. Canada cannot keep accepting this as the cost of doing business. There is simply too much on the line.”
The analysis highlighted that while transportation disruptions affect the entire supply chain, farmers are often left with limited options, absorbing price discounts, delayed payments, and increased storage costs.
2024 Rail Shutdown Still Fresh in Industry Memory
The findings come against the backdrop of the unprecedented dual railway stoppage in 2024, which brought grain shipments across Canada to a standstill. That event cost the sector millions of dollars per day and intensified concerns among global buyers about Canada’s reliability as a supplier.
Repeated disruptions have amplified questions about consistency at a time when agricultural exports play a vital role in Canada’s economic resilience. Industry leaders warn that continued instability risks permanently shifting export business to competing countries.
Calls for Targeted Labour Reform
With federal consultations on Canada’s labour relations framework now underway, the Agriculture Transport Coalition is urging the government to adopt two targeted policy changes aimed at preventing future shutdowns.
The first recommendation is to ensure good-faith bargaining by appointing a Special Mediator to oversee collective bargaining, manage timelines, and ensure negotiations continue progressing.
The second recommendation calls for earlier dispute resolution by granting the Minister authority to consider economic harm and refer disputes to binding arbitration when necessary, before work stoppages occur.
“Canada’s customers expect reliability, and repeated disruptions put that at risk,” said Greg Northey, vice president of corporate affairs with Pulse Canada. “With so much on the line, this is a critical moment to ensure the right policy framework is in place.”
What can you do?
As part of its campaign, the coalition is encouraging Canadians to visit KeepGrainMoving.ca to learn more about the issue and send a letter to their Member of Parliament. The group stressed that participation in the federal consultation process is essential to ensuring government decisions reflect the real economic impacts faced by farmers and exporters.
The coalition also pledged to continue engaging with government officials and industry stakeholders throughout the consultation process, with a focus on advancing practical solutions that protect Canada’s trading reputation, support farm incomes, and strengthen long-term competitiveness.
For Canada’s grain sector, the message from the analysis is clear. Even brief disruptions carry massive consequences, and without systemic reform, the financial risks will continue to grow with each threat to the transportation network.