When Will The Downturn In Cattle Prices Be Behind Us? Jim Robb Takes A Look Down The Road

By Jim Robb,

While most of us worry about the day to day or weekly markets, Jim Robb, director of the Livestock Marketing Information Center, has been considering all the facts and taken a longer view of where he believes the cattle market is headed. He spoke with Ron Hays, farm director for Radio Oklahoma Network, about what producers can expect to see over the next few years. He says the summer of 2016 has set the stage for what’s coming.

“We really do think the summer of 2016 here was a bit of a turning point. Heifer slaughter has been up dramatically in recent weeks, cow slaughter is increasing,” Robb said, adding that this is happening a bit earlier than anticipated; signaling predictions of herd size growth. “So the rate of growth in the cow herd, the initial signs of slowing down as we move through 2017, are kind of already in place. That leads us to believe that we’re going to have more meat in the marketplace - in fact in 2018, US beef production will be the largest since 2002.”

Robb says that is not the whole story though. He says it’s also the demand, growing exports and growing domestic population factoring in. He predicts that lower prices across the board, between 4 - 10 percent year-over-year declines, will appear in cattle prices in 2017 and 2018. After that though, he says some cyclical corrections will take place as herd size adjustments are made. At that point, Robb believes the downturn in prices will be behind us.