Why the Decline in the Heart of Farm Tractor Sales in 2024

Sep 19, 2024

Glass Management Group has maintained data on U.S. tractor sales, by horsepower category, by month, since 1969 and this extensive data base has allowed the production of an annual Tractor and Combine Sales Forecast each November for the following calendar year, which has been published publicly since 1999.

As we reviewed our 2024 forecast versus the actual retail activity each month, we noted with the March AEM Flash Report that the retail activity in the Less than 40 HP and in the 40 – 100 HP tractor categories were significantly below our forecasted levels and that sent us back to determine why we had such a serious miss in our forecasting efforts.

As the year has unfolded, two of those categories have fallen below our forecasted totals for the year-to-date totals, even though the total numbers of tractors forecasted for both categories were down significantly from 2023 levels. The <40 HP category is now about -20.1% below our original year-to-date forecast from November, 2023 while the 40 – 100 HP category remains significantly below our forecast, by -19.6%.

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