Farm Department Cuts Wheat, Ups Canola View

Jul 06, 2011

WINNIPEG, Manitoba -- Canada's agriculture department slashed its production forecast for wheat, but raised its canola outlook, while warning that overall crop stocks will drop to a record low this summer.

Agriculture Canada released its grain and oilseed outlook, which is based on analysis not a farmer survey, late on Tuesday.

The department lowered its estimates of seeded area for most crops to account for a wet spring that left millions of unplanted acres. The downsized area resulted in Agriculture Canada's reduced harvest outlook versus its June 7 report.

The department forecasts larger harvests for major crops than last year, other than for wheat excluding durum. That crop category is mainly made up of spring wheat and Ag Canada expects production to reach 20 million tonnes, down less than one percent from last year.

Agriculture Canada cut its harvest estimate for all-wheat to 24 million tonnes from June's forecast of 25.5 million tonnes.

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Dr. Emerson Nafziger is Professor Emeritus of Crop Sciences at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, with degrees in agronomy from Ohio State, Purdue, and Illinois. His research has focused on nitrogen rate strategies and crop productivity. He co-developed the Maximum Return to Nitrogen (MRTN) model, which is widely used across the Midwest. His research spans N response trials, hybrid interactions, crop rotation effects, and yield stability.