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2016 Corn Belt Crop Tour: Ohio

First stop in a 12-state tour

By Diego Flammini
Assistant Editor, North American Content
Farms.com

The 2016 U.S. Corn Belt Crop Tour, the 5th annual event put on by the Chief Commodity Strategist Moe Agostino and the Farms.com Risk Management team, made its first stop on June 25 in Ohio.

Agostino hopes the tour can help answer a variety of questions, including whether or not weather risk premiums can be added to the market.

He provided an update of factors that could contribute to price fluctuation.



 

“We had some really good prices and all of a sudden we have taken away the weather rally, the demand rally and now we have this Brexit where the United Kingdom has decide to leave the EU, causing some global growth recession fears,” he said.

As always, weather is an important issue, and with the possibility La Nina, Agostino said much of the Midwest will be monitored closely.

“We’ve got the potential to have a really good crop, but boy do we need the water to keep coming,” said Charles Wildman, a farmer from South Charleston, Ohio.

“We got a little this week, but with the 80 and 90-degree temperatures, we’re going to dry up pretty quick,” said Lane Osswald, a cash crop farmer from Eldorado, Ohio.

“Over the next two weeks, I don’t see any rain in the forecast,” Agostino said. “That is a problem.”

At the end of his Ohio tour, Agostino ranked the corn as a 6/10 and soybeans at 7/10.

Stay tuned as Farms.com will continue to update Moe Agostino’s findings from the U.S. Corn Belt Crop Tour.

Follow the tour on social media using the hashtag #cornbelt16.


Trending Video

Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?

Video: Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?


Historically, the USDA December crop report is a non-event or another dud report as the USDA reserves any final supply changes to the final report in January of the following year in this case 2026. But after the longest U.S. government shutdown in history at 43 days and no October crop report will they provide more data/surprise and make an exception?
Our China U.S. soybean purchase tracker is now at 26.6% or a total of 3.2 mmt but for traders it’s taking too long to unfold.
The final Stats Canada production report was bearish canola and wheat projection a record crop in both (it adds to the global glut of supplies) and bullish local corn and soybean prices in Ontario/Quebec thanks to a drought. It will not help the fund flow short-term, the USDA may need to offset it?
A U.S. Fed interest rate cut of another 25-basis point next Wednesday (probability 87.1%) could help fund flow and sentiment in stock and ag commodities into year end.
More inflows into Bitcoin this past week saw prices rebound back above 90,000 with support at 82,000 and resistance at 96,000.
A V-shaped bottom in cattle suggest the lows are in after Mexico reported another new world screwworm case. Lower weights, seasonal demand and higher U.S. beef select/choice values with a continued closure of the Mexican border to cattle will result in a resumption of higher cattle futures into yearend.
Australia is expected to produce its 3rd largest wheat crop ever at 36 mmt adding to the global glut of supplies.
Reports of ASF in hogs in Spain the largest pork exporter in Europe could see the U.S. win more pork export business long-term.
If the rains verify into next week of 3-5 inches for Brazil it would go a long way to fixing the dry regions from the last 2-months, but the European weather model has been wrong for the past 2-months!
Natural gas futures are surging to the 3rd price count as frigid hold temps set in.
CDN $ is also surging to end the week on a very resilient economy and better employment numbers suggesting no interest rate cuts next week.
Finally, the CFTC report showed funds were net buyers of soybeans but sellers of corn, canola and wheat. In real time the funds have gone back to selling as they take some profits.