Rosy picture for U.S. Midwest corn and soybean yields
By Devin Lashley
The 2024 Pro Farmer Crop Tour has painted a rosy picture for U.S. Midwest corn and soybean yields. The tour, which surveyed thousands of fields across seven key states such as Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana, reported robust yields that align closely with, or even surpass, USDA projections.
This news comes at a time when the prices of corn, soybeans, and wheat are already experiencing downward pressure. This latest data from both Pro Farmer and the USDA are likely to exacerbate this downward trend.
Pro Farmer’s 2024 Crop Tour data reveals strong corn yields across the Midwest. For instance, Illinois’ corn yield averaged 204.14 bushels per acre, up 5.4 percent year-over-year (YOY), which aligns closely with the USDA's projection of a 9 percent YOY increase.
Similarly, Indiana’s corn yield was reported at 187.54 bushels per acre by Pro Farmer, the highest since 2021 and up 3.7 percent from last year, again close to the USDA’s 2 percent YOY increase estimate.
Even though some regions, like Minnesota, are underperforming with a yield of 164.9 bushels per acre, the overall picture remains positive. The USDA's national corn production forecast stands at a record 15.1 billion bushels, with an average yield of 183.1 bushels per acre.
This abundant supply of corn is poised to drive prices down even further as ending stocks grow. Corn futures have already been trading near contract lows, with December futures low of $3.85 per bushel, reflecting market anticipation of a surplus. Despite some regional variability, the general consensus from both Pro Farmer and USDA data is that the corn harvest will be plentiful, reinforcing the likelihood of continued price declines.
The soybean situation mirrors that of corn, with both Pro Farmer and the USDA reporting optimistic yield expectations. Pro Farmer’s findings highlight significant increases in pod counts, particularly in Illinois, where they are up nearly 12 percent YOY, making it the highest since 2000.
Similarly, Indiana has seen its highest pod counts since 2002, with a 7.6 percent YOY increase. These findings are consistent with USDA estimates, which predict a record soybean yield of 53.2 bushels per acre and a total production of 4.6 billion bushels.
Soybean futures have dropped to a low of $9.55 per bushel and the price is likely to decline further as the harvest progresses and the market absorbs the reality of a record crop.
The dual reports from Pro Farmer and the USDA paint a clear picture. Both corn and soybean markets are on track for a substantial supply increase, which will likely drive prices down. This is already evident in the trading patterns for these commodities, with both corn and soybean futures showing significant declines over recent weeks.
The USDA’s August 2024 WASDE report, which forecasts larger supplies and lower prices, aligns with the findings from the Pro Farmer Crop Tour, reinforcing the expectation that prices will continue to fall.
The combined data from the Pro Farmer Crop Tour and the USDA's WASDE report and a mild month of August suggest that the Midwest is headed for a bumper crop year, particularly for corn and soybeans. As these large supplies come to market, prices are expected to continue their downward trend, posing challenges for farmers.
As always, the next few months will be crucial as the harvest progresses and the full impact of these record yields becomes clear.
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