Drought intensifies across the Midwest as rainfall patterns diverge and El Niño accelerates!
Drier weather across the Midwest and Upper Midwest has ushered in a new wave of drought concerns, with portions of Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Indiana newly appearing on the U.S. Drought Monitor, according to the Nutrien Weekly Weather Intelligence Report by meteorologist Eric Snodgrass.
As of late May 2026, drought now covers 77 percent of the contiguous United States, marking the most extensive late-spring drought in the 26-year history of the monitor. The severity-and-coverage index stands at 199, while the share of the country experiencing severe or worse drought has climbed to 42 percent—both all-time highs for this season.
The weather pattern to watch in the coming weeks centers around a wet corridor stretching from the Plains and the western and central Corn Belt into the Canadian Prairies. Drier conditions dominate on either side, including the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and much of eastern North America.
A Canadian high moving toward the Great Lakes between Tuesday and Thursday will keep the Northeast dry and intensify precipitation in the wet corridor, creating stark contrasts across the agricultural landscape.
Forecasters face a significant split between two major weather models regarding rainfall in key farming areas such as Illinois and the Ohio/Kentucky region. The European (Euro) model predicts heavier rains, curling precipitation around the sinking high, while the Global Forecast System (GFS) remains nearly dry. This model divergence adds uncertainty to local forecasts and planning.
Severe weather remains active across the Plains, particularly in the Northern Plains on Tuesday and the Red River Valley on Wednesday. Farmers should monitor any rainfall reaching the driest zones of western Nebraska and Kansas, where relief is most needed.
Temperature patterns are expected to vary throughout the next two weeks, with attention turning to the Western U.S. after June 12-14. A ridge of high pressure may reestablish, increasing early summer heat stress.
Looking further ahead, the rapid development of El Niño is notable, breaking records for speed but not yet dominating North American summer weather. However, its interaction with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and North Pacific sea surface temperatures will shape summer patterns.
Forecasts suggest June will bring drier conditions to the Plains and West and wetter weather in the East, before a July reversal—wetter in the North, drier in the South and East, with storms at the margins.
As meteorological models give no clear picture of the weather ahead, as always farmers need must remain aware of shifting weather patterns and prepare for ongoing drought and variable climate conditions.
Photo Credit: Nutrien