Producers focus on productivity amid uncertain trade
According to a recent RaboResearch report, the global pork industry is facing a period of uncertainty, with limited herd growth and ongoing health and trade challenges shaping the outlook for 2026.
Despite these challenges, producers are focusing on productivity, efficiency, and market expansion to maintain profitability.
According to the RaboResearch report, the global sow herd is expected to decline in 2026 as producers remain cautious about expansion. Lower feed costs and tighter beef and poultry supplies are creating a supportive margin environment, but uncertainty continues to restrain growth.
“The industry is increasingly prioritizing productivity enhancements, herd health, and optimizing carcass weights to counterbalance limited herd growth,” said Christine McCracken, Senior Analyst – Animal Protein at RaboResearch.
China’s policy to reduce its sow herd by one million, or roughly 2.5% of its current base, will cause a 1% global decline. However, Brazil continues to expand its herd, benefiting from strong margins and robust exports.
Trade activity has increased by 3% year-over-year, with Brazil expected to boost its market share from 12% to 15% by 2025. Yet, geopolitical tensions are causing instability, particularly for the U.S. and European Union, which face trade barriers in key markets like China.
Disease remains a significant concern, with African swine fever (ASF) continuing to impact production, especially in Vietnam and parts of Europe. Other health issues, including PRRSv and foot-and-mouth disease, are also affecting herds in North America and Europe.
Pork prices are currently strong as demand exceeds supply in most regions. Prices in the EU and North America have increased by 10% and 21%, respectively. However, China’s prices have fallen 42% due to improved production efficiency. While inflation could temper demand, limited beef and poultry supplies are expected to support pork consumption into 2026.
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