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market movers to watch the week April 22

market movers to watch the week April 22

Crop progress, GDP, crude oil, PPI and cold storage will all impact commodity market prices

This week there are 4 key reports to watch that could have significant impacts on commodity markets the week of April 22, 2024. This column tracks key events in commodity marketing impacting the agriculture industry! The series of article shares issues to watch the following week, issues that may have an impact on commodity prices in the coming weeks.

By Devin Lasley Risk Management Intern

1. USDA’s Crop Progress
The USDA’s crop progress report will be released on Monday April 22nd which could show that the U.S. 2024 corn, soybean, and spring wheat planting will start to fall behind in planting as a result of rainstorms that are predicted to last through April 26th.

The record fast planting pace is no longer part of the narrative. If some regions cannot plant early, top end yields will start to come down. Those regions that were dry will welcome the moisture, but many would have preferred it 2 to 3 weeks from now after planting was complete.

The western U.S. remains dry while the east is too wet. The 5-year average for next week for U.S. corn is 11 percent, soybeans 4 percent, cotton 11 percent, oats 42 percent (already at 43 percent as of April 13, 2024) and spring wheat 12 percent. Look for improvements in U.S. topsoil and subsoil moisture with 1-3 inches of moisture that fell this week.

2. U.S. Q1 GDP
The U.S. Q1 GDP figures will be released on Thursday April 25th. The 4th quarter of 23 GDP was a + 3.3 percent, far above the 2 percent gain wall street was looking for.  Overall it exceeded most predictions at the beginning of the year. Fed forecasts for Q1 GDP for 2024 show a 2.1 percent increase in real GDP, increased from previous estimates of around 1.4 percent in December.

The strong U.S. economy is not provided any clues to the U.S. Fed to lower interest rates and is why the rates are not coming down. The earliest is now September of 24 -- 6 months after the fact.

3. Crude oil
Keep an eye crude oil prices on any Israeli plans to retaliate and attack Iran in the Israel-Hamas-Iran war. Higher crude oil prices could spill over into a higher commodity complex and drive grain prices along for the rise. However, Iran is trapped as they cannot afford to stop shipping oil exports to China, it’s not in their best interest to disrupt 31 percent of global oil exports through the Strait of Hormuth and they can’t win a war with Israel and the U.S.

4. USDA Cold storage
Wednesday April 24th marks the next release date for the USDA cold storage report. Last month's cold storage report showed natural cheese stocks rose slightly compared to the previous month and 2 percent from a year ago. Butter stocks surged by 19 percent month-on-month and slightly increased year-on-year. 

However, frozen poultry supplies dipped by 1 percent from the previous month and 5 percent from last year, with chicken stocks down 5 percent month-on-month and 9 percent from last year. Turkey stocks saw a notable 9 percent increase from last month and 4 percent from February 29, 2023.

Despite declines in frozen fruit and vegetable stocks, red meat supplies also fell, with beef and pork stocks decreasing month-on-month and year-on-year. With the HPAI virus in the U.S. dairy cow herd look for a build up in beef in cold storage.

For daily information and updates on agriculture commodity marketing and price risk management for North American farmers, producers, and agribusiness visit the Risk Management Website to subscribe to the program.

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