Could tying AI chip exports with agricultural purchases be a win for U.S. soybean farmers?
On the weekly Ag Commodity Corner+ Podcast hosted by Farms.com Risk Management Chief Commodity Strategist Moe Agostino and Commodity Strategist Abhinesh Gopal, the focus for the week of August 18 to 22, 2025 was connecting market signals with on-the-ground realities. The discussion centered on trade negotiations and regional drought pressures.
Agostino highlighted signs pointing to a possible U.S.–China trade agreement. He noted that comments from President Trump urging China to expand soybean imports, combined with headlines on large aircraft sales and paused tariffs until mid-November, may signal a major trade deal that could be announced at the November APEC summit.
Gopal noted that linking AI chip exports with agricultural purchases could be a win for U.S. soybean farmers.
Crop tour updates were also in focus. Pro Farmer’s Crop Tour U.S. yield estimate of 182.7 bushels per acre for corn was sharply lower than USDA’s August projection. Soybean yields were pegged at 53, slightly under USDA’s 53.6.
Markets reflected these fundamentals. Corn and soybean futures showed strength, with September corn up 5 cents and soybeans up 16 cents. Energy markets and canola were supported by U.S. EPA biofuel exemption decisions, while Chicago wheat hit new lows.
Record cattle prices and stock market highs added further signals of broader economic momentum.
As harvest approaches, the podcast reminded farmers to stay patient, track yields, and, as always, prepare marketing plans carefully.
Ontario Great Ontario Yield Tour
Agostino compared the Pro Farmer Crop Tour results with the Great Ontario Yield Tour observations, noting disease pressures in the western Corn Belt and drought stress in eastern regions. In Ontario, the Great Ontario Yield Tour showed a clear contrast. Southwestern fields were performing better, but eastern Ontario and Quebec reported severe drought, with some farmers recording fields that received no rain in three months as of August 21.
Soybean crops were holding slightly better than corn, though overall yields look weaker than in previous record years. Agostino emphasized that despite advanced genetics, “rain makes grain,” and variability within fields remains a challenge.
Ontario’s final provincial yield estimates will be released in Woodstock on August 28 during the Great Ontario Yield Tour final event.
Watch the podcast below.
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