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Rabobank releases February North American Agribusiness Review

Highlights include record planting for soybeans and the impact of PEDv on pork outlook

By Diego Flammini, Farms.com

Just as the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Report, Rabobank also put out their North American Agribusiness Review.

The report covers a wide variety of crops and products but Farms.com is going to focus on corn, wheat, soybeans and a few other products that could potentially have important impacts on the farming future.

Corn
The Rabobank report has corn selling close to the $4.00 per bushel mark with a very slight increase going forward all the way to September 2016. They project approximately 89 million acres to be planted with a trending yield of around 164 bushels/acre.

Wheat
Rabobank’s report shows prices for wheat in April at over $5.00 per bushel. This trend looks to stay consistent until December where there’s a chance the price could go up. The strong American dollar and its impact on wheat exports is also a factor affecting the price of wheat.

Soybeans
In March 2015, Rabobank estimates the price for soybeans will be close to $10.00 per bushel. There could be a record of soybeans planted because of how much more it costs to produce corn than it does soybeans. Rabobank says US soybeans could be planted across 85.3 million acres, an increase of 1.3% from last year.

PEDv
As a result of the battle with PEDv (Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus), Rabobank suggests pork producers in the United States are slowly expanding production. Their research shows hogs currently around $70/CWT.

For more coverage of corn, soybean, wheat and other markets, be sure to check out the Farms.com Risk Management page.


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Video: Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?


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A U.S. Fed interest rate cut of another 25-basis point next Wednesday (probability 87.1%) could help fund flow and sentiment in stock and ag commodities into year end.
More inflows into Bitcoin this past week saw prices rebound back above 90,000 with support at 82,000 and resistance at 96,000.
A V-shaped bottom in cattle suggest the lows are in after Mexico reported another new world screwworm case. Lower weights, seasonal demand and higher U.S. beef select/choice values with a continued closure of the Mexican border to cattle will result in a resumption of higher cattle futures into yearend.
Australia is expected to produce its 3rd largest wheat crop ever at 36 mmt adding to the global glut of supplies.
Reports of ASF in hogs in Spain the largest pork exporter in Europe could see the U.S. win more pork export business long-term.
If the rains verify into next week of 3-5 inches for Brazil it would go a long way to fixing the dry regions from the last 2-months, but the European weather model has been wrong for the past 2-months!
Natural gas futures are surging to the 3rd price count as frigid hold temps set in.
CDN $ is also surging to end the week on a very resilient economy and better employment numbers suggesting no interest rate cuts next week.
Finally, the CFTC report showed funds were net buyers of soybeans but sellers of corn, canola and wheat. In real time the funds have gone back to selling as they take some profits.