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Santa rally unlikely for grain prices

Santa rally unlikely for grain prices

Price increases in November may have ended the chances of a December rally, a commodity strategist said

By Diego Flammini
Staff Writer
Farms.com

Cash crop producers hoping for Santa Claus to bring them higher grain prices near the end of the year may not get what they’re asking for.

November price rallies saw soybeans inch towards $12 per bushel, wheat prices rose to more than $6 per bushel and corn prices touched $4.30 per bushel.

Those points may be as high as commodity prices go for the remainder of the year, said Moe Agostino, chief commodity strategist with Farms.com Risk Management.

“November’s performance may have stolen the party,” he said. “The month of December can be strong, but (commodities’) performance over the past four months says the easy money has been made, so it will be harder to rally from here.”

Weather in South America and demand for corn will be key drivers for crop prices moving forward, he added.

Heading into 2021, the Jan. 12 USDA crop report could have some positive numbers for farmers.

“The report could be another bullish surprise with lower yields and higher export usage,” Agostino said.

News outside of the ag sector could also affect grain prices.

COVID-19 vaccine prospects and the U.S. election results can help provide stability.

“Policy and trade are very important,” Agostino said. “So is a recovering global and U.S. economy.”

If farmers are thinking about selling grain now, Agostino suggests keeping some aside in case prices improve.

“If you need the money, manage the risk and reward gift,” he said. “But keep some bushels dry in the event prices head higher in 2021.”


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US “Flash Drought” Worst in 133-160 Years + Disease taking a Bite out of US 2025 Corn/Soybean Crops

Video: US “Flash Drought” Worst in 133-160 Years + Disease taking a Bite out of US 2025 Corn/Soybean Crops


A dry August and a “flash drought” in the ECB (Eastern Corn Belt) the driest top 10 to 15 years in 150 to 160 years (Ohio the driest in 133 years) plus disease is taking a bite out of the 2025 U.S. corn and soybean crops.
It's going to be an early harvest. This could be the start of the 89-year drought cycle that may have been delayed until 2026 as La Nina maybe returning.
The USDA September crop report is all about record corn ears and record soybean counts but the October USDA crop report will be about pod and ear weights.
Stats Canada reported higher forecasts for the 2025 Canadian Prairies all wheat and canola crops vs. last year based on satellite imagery but are they overestimating production?
The 2025 Great ON Yield Tour and Quebec crop tours are projecting corn and soybean crops below the 10-year average.
China's Vice Commerce Ministry Li Chenggang visits Washington this week as we continue to connect the dots is a positive sign towards a China/U.S. trade deal. But will U.S. farmers have a winter without China as they buy more soybeans from Uruguay/Argentina? U.S. Northern Plain soybean farmers are seeing red with flat prices at $8.97/bu!
U.S. corn exports on record pace up 99% vs. last year.
Fund short covering continues in corn futures bottom is in!