Interest rates, the war in Ukraine, Jobless Claims, and GDP Growth are the Reports to Watch.
By Aleah Harle, Farms.com Risk Management Intern
This Farms.com column tracks key events in commodity marketing impacting the agriculture industry! The series of article shares reports or statistics to watch the following week which may have an impact on commodity prices in the coming weeks.
1. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest-rate decision is to be released March 19 and holds a 1% chance of lower short-term interest rates. Given signs of easing inflation and slowing economic growth, it is anticipated that the U.S. Fed will remain in pause mode on March 19th and maintain interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% due to the uncertainty and lack of clarity on U.S. tariffs.
The markets believe there is only a 25.4% chance of an interest rate cut in May but rises to 58.7% for June.
2. Ukraine-Russia Cease Fire Agreement. Discussions between U.S. and Ukrainian officials have been in the works regarding a 30-day ceasefire, however, the final decision is in Russia’s hands.
In the coming week, a deal may be reached, however, the long-term effects will depend on the nature of the agreement and the ability to address key issues regarding prisoner releases, safe sea transportations, an end to all ariel attacks and security guarantees.
If an agreement is reached, it will, remove some geo-political risk premium out of stocks and commodities, it could also lift sanctions on Russian oil and put downward pressure on crude oil prices as production increases.
3. The next U.S. Initial Jobless Claims report is set for release March 20. In the latest data, jobless claims declined by 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 220,000 for the week ended March 8.
These numbers do not reflect the thousands of government workers who have been laid off by President Trump’s newly created Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).
Additionally, the number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid decreased by 27,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.870 million people during the week ending March 1. Next week’s report is expected to begin to show the effects of DOGE’s job cuts.
4. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow update is on March 17th. As of March 6th, the Atlanta Fed estimated a -2.4% real GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2025, an improvement from the -2.8% contraction forecasted on March 3rd.
While “Trumpcession” warnings flood the mainstream media, many argue that these concerns are premature – with the culprits for the significant drop being net export estimates and PCE data. GDP tracks government spending so we would not be surprised to see a negative number with the next official U.S. GDP release on March 27.
5. The U.S. Drought Monitor will be out March 20 and the month of March is shaping up to be a bit warmer than normal. A Bomb Cyclone this week could provide enough moisture to improve some of the dryness in the U.S. Midwest. April looks like a flip back to cooler conditions which could make it a challenge for early U.S. spring corn and soybean plantings.
6. For Canadian readers, an additional report to watch is the Consumer Price Index (CPI).The next scheduled release for Canadian CPI is March 18. Last month's report showed February CPI coming in at +2.9% vs. January at +2.8%.
The bank of Canada lowered interest rates for a 7th consecutive time yesterday to 2.75% and as long as we are in a trade war will likely see further cuts to cushion the impact of tariffs which could see inflation slowly increase by yearend.
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