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Top Market Movers to Watch for the Week of March 17

Top Market Movers to Watch for the Week of March 17

Interest rates, the war in Ukraine, Jobless Claims, and GDP Growth are the Reports to Watch.

By Aleah Harle, Farms.com Risk Management Intern

This Farms.com column tracks key events in commodity marketing impacting the agriculture industry! The series of article shares reports or statistics to watch the following week which may have an impact on commodity prices in the coming weeks.

1. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest-rate decision is to be released March 19 and holds a 1% chance of lower short-term interest rates. Given signs of easing inflation and slowing economic growth, it is anticipated that the U.S. Fed will remain in pause mode on March 19th and maintain interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% due to the uncertainty and lack of clarity on U.S. tariffs.

The markets believe there is only a 25.4% chance of an interest rate cut in May but rises to 58.7% for June.

2. Ukraine-Russia Cease Fire Agreement.  Discussions between U.S. and Ukrainian officials have been in the works regarding a 30-day ceasefire, however, the final decision is in Russia’s hands.

In the coming week, a deal may be reached, however, the long-term effects will depend on the nature of the agreement and the ability to address key issues regarding prisoner releases, safe sea transportations, an end to all ariel attacks and security guarantees.

If an agreement is reached, it will, remove some geo-political risk premium out of stocks and commodities, it could also lift sanctions on Russian oil and put downward pressure on crude oil prices as production increases.

3. The next U.S. Initial Jobless Claims report is set for release March 20. In the latest data, jobless claims declined by 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 220,000 for the week ended March 8.

These numbers do not reflect the thousands of government workers who have been laid off by President Trump’s newly created Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

Additionally, the number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid decreased by 27,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.870 million people during the week ending March 1. Next week’s report is expected to begin to show the effects of DOGE’s job cuts.

4. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow update is on March 17th. As of March 6th, the Atlanta Fed estimated a -2.4% real GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2025, an improvement from the -2.8% contraction forecasted on March 3rd.

While “Trumpcession” warnings flood the mainstream media, many argue that these concerns are premature – with the culprits for the significant drop being net export estimates and PCE data. GDP tracks government spending so we would not be surprised to see a negative number with the next official U.S. GDP release on March 27.

5. The U.S. Drought Monitor will be out March 20 and the month of March is shaping up to be a bit warmer than normal.  A Bomb Cyclone this week could provide enough moisture to improve some of the dryness in the U.S. Midwest. April looks like a flip back to cooler conditions which could make it a challenge for early U.S. spring corn and soybean plantings.

6. For Canadian readers, an additional report to watch is the Consumer Price Index (CPI).The next scheduled release for Canadian CPI is March 18. Last month's report showed February CPI coming in at +2.9% vs. January at +2.8%.

The bank of Canada lowered interest rates for a 7th consecutive time yesterday to 2.75% and as long as we are in a trade war will likely see further cuts to cushion the impact of tariffs which could see inflation slowly increase by yearend.

For daily information and updates on agriculture commodity marketing and price risk management for North American farmers, producers, and agribusiness visit the Farms.com Risk Management Website to subscribe to the program.

 

 


Trending Video

Japan Trade Deal = Win for Farmers + Black Swan in 2025 US Yields + Start of 89-Year Drought Cycle for 2026?

Video: Japan Trade Deal = Win for Farmers + Black Swan in 2025 US Yields + Start of 89-Year Drought Cycle for 2026?


$8 billion trade deal with Japan to but U.S. corn, soybeans and ethanol was a WIN for farmers.
The U.S. courts ruling that made Trumps reciprocal tariffs illegal is a short-term set back for future investments and trade deals?
Southern rust in Iowa is so severe that it has covered 60-70% of the corn real estate leaving very little room for tarpot! 84% of the Iowa corn crop is still good-excellent, 3% poor – very poor? If U.S. farmers did not apply fungicide only 20% because of low grain prices and took a risk, we have a problem, Houston!
Is this the start of the 89-year drought cycle that was delayed by a year?
The lows are in for corn. History often repeats but not necessarily rhyme.
OPEC+ is looking to unwind a 1.65 million barrel per day voluntary cut at Sundays next meeting bearish WTI crude oil as the summer driving season comes to an end.
Frost is early in 2025 and a concern, but it will not kill the growing season.
Next Friday's USDA crop report is about record ears and pods so we would not be surprised to see 190 and 54 bpa in the U.S. corn and soybean crops respectively.
U.S. cotton/rice farmers are struggling with 1/3 looking to go out of business as Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins says the “Golden Age” is coming.
Canadian government unveils new measures to help Canadian prairies canola growers with a $370 million biofuel production incentive.
Soy oil futures closed the gap up from June of 25 now we can resume the uptrend.