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Trudeau talking USMCA in Washington

Trudeau talking USMCA in Washington

Liberals willing to recall Parliament to ratify deal

 

By Jonathan Martin
Staff Writer
Farms.com

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is in Washington today for talks with President Donald Trump.

The two heads of state are discussing the ratification of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). This trade deal will replace the 25-year-old North American Free Trade Agreement once it’s ratified by the legislatures in all three countries.

USMCA is at second reading before the Canadian House of Commons. The government’s goal is to move “in tandem” with the U.S. in the ratification process, Chrystia Freeland, Canada’s foreign affairs minister, said in May.

“Canadian farmers rely on stable markets to succeed and ratifying the CUSMA will allow us to capitalize on further opportunities for growth with our closest trading partners,” said Jeff Nielsen, chairman of Grain Growers of Canada in a Wednesday release. “We need tariff-free access for our export commodities as soon as possible.”

Goldy Hyder, president of the Business Council of Canada, said that an ongoing concern exists the deal may not be ratified with both Canadian and American federal elections on the horizon. He spoke to congressional democrats about his concerns last week.

“We want to make sure that the American side (understands) that we don’t want this process to get caught up in the politics of (our) election,” he told Global in a Sunday interview. “Worse, we might have to open it up after the fact.”

The Liberal government is willing to recall Parliament this summer to ratify USMCA, the Canadian Press reported using an anonymous source. All business of the House of Commons and Senate is terminated when a parliamentary session ends, so if CUSMA isn’t ratified by mid-September, it will “die on the order paper.”

Meanwhile, Nancy Pelosi, the U.S. House speaker, has been blocking the House from taking up legislation to approve the trade pact for months. As speaker, Pelosi has control over House proceedings and doesn’t have to bring the deal up for a vote. She has been the principle obstacle for USCMA’s U.S. ratification, citing concerns over enforcement tools, labor and environmental protections and provisions on pharmaceuticals.


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Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?

Video: Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?


Historically, the USDA December crop report is a non-event or another dud report as the USDA reserves any final supply changes to the final report in January of the following year in this case 2026. But after the longest U.S. government shutdown in history at 43 days and no October crop report will they provide more data/surprise and make an exception?
Our China U.S. soybean purchase tracker is now at 26.6% or a total of 3.2 mmt but for traders it’s taking too long to unfold.
The final Stats Canada production report was bearish canola and wheat projection a record crop in both (it adds to the global glut of supplies) and bullish local corn and soybean prices in Ontario/Quebec thanks to a drought. It will not help the fund flow short-term, the USDA may need to offset it?
A U.S. Fed interest rate cut of another 25-basis point next Wednesday (probability 87.1%) could help fund flow and sentiment in stock and ag commodities into year end.
More inflows into Bitcoin this past week saw prices rebound back above 90,000 with support at 82,000 and resistance at 96,000.
A V-shaped bottom in cattle suggest the lows are in after Mexico reported another new world screwworm case. Lower weights, seasonal demand and higher U.S. beef select/choice values with a continued closure of the Mexican border to cattle will result in a resumption of higher cattle futures into yearend.
Australia is expected to produce its 3rd largest wheat crop ever at 36 mmt adding to the global glut of supplies.
Reports of ASF in hogs in Spain the largest pork exporter in Europe could see the U.S. win more pork export business long-term.
If the rains verify into next week of 3-5 inches for Brazil it would go a long way to fixing the dry regions from the last 2-months, but the European weather model has been wrong for the past 2-months!
Natural gas futures are surging to the 3rd price count as frigid hold temps set in.
CDN $ is also surging to end the week on a very resilient economy and better employment numbers suggesting no interest rate cuts next week.
Finally, the CFTC report showed funds were net buyers of soybeans but sellers of corn, canola and wheat. In real time the funds have gone back to selling as they take some profits.