Trudeau talking USMCA in Washington

Jun 19, 2019

Liberals willing to recall Parliament to ratify deal

By Jonathan Martin
Staff Writer
Farms.com

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is in Washington today for talks with President Donald Trump.

The two heads of state are discussing the ratification of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). This trade deal will replace the 25-year-old North American Free Trade Agreement once it’s ratified by the legislatures in all three countries.

USMCA is at second reading before the Canadian House of Commons. The government’s goal is to move “in tandem” with the U.S. in the ratification process, Chrystia Freeland, Canada’s foreign affairs minister, said in May.

“Canadian farmers rely on stable markets to succeed and ratifying the CUSMA will allow us to capitalize on further opportunities for growth with our closest trading partners,” said Jeff Nielsen, chairman of Grain Growers of Canada in a Wednesday release. “We need tariff-free access for our export commodities as soon as possible.”

Goldy Hyder, president of the Business Council of Canada, said that an ongoing concern exists the deal may not be ratified with both Canadian and American federal elections on the horizon. He spoke to congressional democrats about his concerns last week.

“We want to make sure that the American side (understands) that we don’t want this process to get caught up in the politics of (our) election,” he told Global in a Sunday interview. “Worse, we might have to open it up after the fact.”

The Liberal government is willing to recall Parliament this summer to ratify USMCA, the Canadian Press reported using an anonymous source. All business of the House of Commons and Senate is terminated when a parliamentary session ends, so if CUSMA isn’t ratified by mid-September, it will “die on the order paper.”

Meanwhile, Nancy Pelosi, the U.S. House speaker, has been blocking the House from taking up legislation to approve the trade pact for months. As speaker, Pelosi has control over House proceedings and doesn’t have to bring the deal up for a vote. She has been the principle obstacle for USCMA’s U.S. ratification, citing concerns over enforcement tools, labor and environmental protections and provisions on pharmaceuticals.

Video: 2025 USDA December Crop Report a “Dud” + Trump $12 Billion U.S. Farm Aid

The USDA December crop report was friendly corn, neutral soybeans and bearish wheat. The USDA did surprise and increase the 25/26 U.S. corn export forecast to a new record high at 3.2 billion bushels now up 12% vs. last year vs. prior at +9% vs. the export pace to date up 30% the best in 10 years even higher than 20/21! The USDA left the 25/26 U.S. soybean export pace unchanged at 1.635 billion bushels. Higher global wheat supplies will remain a weight and headwind for wheat into year end and start of 2026.
Mexico is now the #1 buyer of U.S. corn, soybeans (usually China), wheat and pork!
USDA also released its long-term early projections but expect more changes by February of 2026.
Trump announces a $12 billion U.S. farmer aid package to be paid out by February 28, 2026. This helps no one but the ag banks, farm equipment companies, seed and fertilizer companies. It does prevent more farmer bushels from being sold near-term but is not bullish grain prices long-term. The Trump administration should focus on increasing U.S. domestic demand and propping up grain futures so farmers can cover their higher costs, up since COVID of 2020.
The China U.S. soybean purchase tracker now stands at 4.521 mmt or 38% of the 12 mmt promised by China at year end or is it end of February or the growing season? Why the discrepancy vs. the fact sheet. The optics are poor for the Trump administration.
After surging to contract highs U.S. natural gas futures plunged over 30+% in just 5-trading days!
Silver traded to new record highs as the debasement and de dollarization trade continued but technicals remain overbought near-term.
Soybean futures remained in correction mode after the funds went record long futures on Nov. 19 +233,000 contracts but the $10.80 support should hold into year end when the fund profit taking/liquidation comes to an end from the year end, end of month and end of quarter selling.
The U.S. Fed cut interest rates for the 3rd time by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50 – 3.75% and they will only cut one more time in 2026 and once in 20267/ but when Powell is gone next April the replacement is willing to cut more aggressively and we could see U.S. interest rates fall to 2.0% very bullish for ag and stocks as it could reignite inflation into 2027.
After 2 months of being drier than normal in Brazil the rains have finally arrived for the 1st half of December, and a record crop is still in the cards but if this pattern continues and verifies it could start to delay the harvest. Argentina after being too wet has turned dry but they are too small, compared top Brazil in the grand picture.
The Canadian dollar surged to $0.73 after better-than-expected employment data with 180,000 new jobs in the past 3-months and 3rd quarter GDP at +2.6% but this could be short-lived.
The latest CFTC report as of 11-19-2025 reported a record long fund position in soybeans at +233,000 contracts when 2026 March soybean futures peaked on 11-19-25 at $11.724/bu.