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Trudeau talking USMCA in Washington

Trudeau talking USMCA in Washington

Liberals willing to recall Parliament to ratify deal

 

By Jonathan Martin
Staff Writer
Farms.com

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is in Washington today for talks with President Donald Trump.

The two heads of state are discussing the ratification of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). This trade deal will replace the 25-year-old North American Free Trade Agreement once it’s ratified by the legislatures in all three countries.

USMCA is at second reading before the Canadian House of Commons. The government’s goal is to move “in tandem” with the U.S. in the ratification process, Chrystia Freeland, Canada’s foreign affairs minister, said in May.

“Canadian farmers rely on stable markets to succeed and ratifying the CUSMA will allow us to capitalize on further opportunities for growth with our closest trading partners,” said Jeff Nielsen, chairman of Grain Growers of Canada in a Wednesday release. “We need tariff-free access for our export commodities as soon as possible.”

Goldy Hyder, president of the Business Council of Canada, said that an ongoing concern exists the deal may not be ratified with both Canadian and American federal elections on the horizon. He spoke to congressional democrats about his concerns last week.

“We want to make sure that the American side (understands) that we don’t want this process to get caught up in the politics of (our) election,” he told Global in a Sunday interview. “Worse, we might have to open it up after the fact.”

The Liberal government is willing to recall Parliament this summer to ratify USMCA, the Canadian Press reported using an anonymous source. All business of the House of Commons and Senate is terminated when a parliamentary session ends, so if CUSMA isn’t ratified by mid-September, it will “die on the order paper.”

Meanwhile, Nancy Pelosi, the U.S. House speaker, has been blocking the House from taking up legislation to approve the trade pact for months. As speaker, Pelosi has control over House proceedings and doesn’t have to bring the deal up for a vote. She has been the principle obstacle for USCMA’s U.S. ratification, citing concerns over enforcement tools, labor and environmental protections and provisions on pharmaceuticals.


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Deleveraging in Bitcoin (Crypto) Will NOT Save Christmas!

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The rapid decline in Bitcoin down 58% is resulting in a “risk off” sentiment and the deleveraging could see a break below support at $80,000 (a double top on the daily chart is bearish).
The daily chart is ugly as is the weekly chart. Bitcoin has broken the long-term channel bull.
The weakness has spilled over into stocks as investors sell high risk stocks like in the AI crowd as they worry that the growth rates are unsustainable.
With the U.S. government reopen we did finally start seeing daily flash USDA sales of U.S. soybeans to China and our tracker has China at 15% of the 12 mmt by yearend. But this is more about politics/economics not who is more competitive the U.S. or Brazil. U.S. domestic corn, ethanol and soybean crush demand remains red hot! U.S. corn and wheat exports are the best in the past 10 years while U.S. soybean exports remain the worse in the last 10 years.
The highly anticipated NVDA 3rd quarter earnings did not disappoint as revenues are accelerating with the new Blackwell chip.
Demand is off the charts and NVDA GPU chips are sold out until the end of 2026. This does not include Chinese demand nor any new UAE sales. Investors remain concerned that this growth is unsustainable. This is till the beginning not the end not a mature industry. BIG PICTURE remains unchanged.
There is a growing concern about Brazil’s soybean planting pace falling behind from irregular rains.
Ther Trump administration lowered tariffs on MAP, DAP and potash a WIN for farmers, but we still need China a major phosphate exporter to release more supplies and lessen the pain moving forward.
The Trump administration delaying the biofuel import credit cuts on biofuels will weigh on soyoil futures but may have also put in a near-term ceiling in soybeans as we need to constantly feed the bull.
Trump promised to wage a war on high U.S. beef prices and finally removed the 40% tariffs on coffee and beef.
The daily chart looks ugly on live and feeder cattle futures, but the weekly chart shows a correction in a long-term bull market.
Today’s cattle of feed report reminded everyone that fundamentals remain very tight. The backward-looking CFTC (Commitment of Traders Report) showed the funds were still short the grain complex but after the rally in the ag commodities in futures in October we know that they have been buying.
We estimate the funds are long soybean futures anywhere between 100,000 top 160,000 vs. record long 253,000 in 2012.