Future trade talks may shape demand for US crops and farm income stability
China continues to be a major export market for U.S. agriculture, especially for soybeans, cotton, sorghum and pork. However, trade tensions and changing supply patterns have affected exports in recent years.
U.S. agricultural exports to China reached about $40.9 billion in 2022 but declined to nearly $27 billion by 2024. This drop reflects China’s shift toward sourcing more products from countries like Brazil and Argentina. These changes have increased competition for U.S. farmers.
Soybeans remain the most important export product. In 2024, soybeans made up about 47% of U.S. agricultural exports to China. Over time, Brazil has gained a larger share of this market. While the U.S. once held a strong position, its share has declined as Brazil increased production and exports.
Trade tensions that began in 2018 played a major role in this shift. During that period, China reduced its U.S. imports, and other suppliers filled the gap. Even though U.S. exports have recovered slightly, competition remains strong.
Recent data shows a small improvement in soybean export sales in early 2026. Sales to China are higher than last year and above average levels. This rise follows a trade agreement that includes commitments for China to buy U.S. soybeans in the coming years.
Still, these commitments do not always lead to consistent purchases. China often buys soybeans from Brazil during certain seasons, which affects U.S. exports.
As U.S. and China continue trade discussions, agriculture remains an important factor. For farmers facing low prices and tight margins, steady export demand is critical. Future trade agreements will play a key role in supporting farm income and improving market stability.
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