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2023 a Down Year for Major Crop Markets

After a couple of years of generally strong prices, 2023 was a year to forget for the major crop futures markets. 

As the charts below show, corn, soybeans and the benchmark Chicago wheat futures are all finishing the year on a much weaker note compared to where they started it. The Kansas City and Minneapolis wheat markets were also losers on the year, as was canola. 

The drop in corn was particularly noteworthy, as that market tends to set the pace for all other crops. Trading at over US$6.50/bu to begin the year, corn lost about 30% of its value amid a record large American crop of 15.2 billion bu, up 11% on the year. US corn ending stocks for 2023-24 are projected up 770 million bu or more than 56%. According to a Reuters report, the annual drop of 30% was the largest for corn in a decade. 

Source : Syngenta.ca

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???? Wheat surges on drought: Prices jumped to multi-week highs as worsening dryness grips the Plains, with 70% of winter wheat in drought. Corn edged higher, while soybeans slipped.

??????? Mixed weather pattern: Rain improved parts of the Corn Belt, but drought worsened elsewhere—especially the High Plains and Kentucky. Nebraska conditions sharply deteriorated, with 56% in extreme drought.

????? Oil spikes on tensions: Crude climbed over 3% near $96 as Iran keeps the Strait of Hormuz restricted, while fragile ceasefires keep geopolitical risk elevated. ???? Pulses gain favor: Farmers are shifting to peas and lentils as a rare profit opportunity, driven by strong protein demand and lower input costs.

???? Exports mixed but solid: Corn sales dipped week-over-week but remain strong overall; soybean and wheat sales showed mixed trends, with steady global demand.