2026 Pork Sector Outlook Weaker than 2025 But Still Profitable

Jun 15, 2026

The Chief Economist with Ever Ag says, while pork sector profitability has weakened in 2026, pork producers are still in a profitable position. The economic outlook for 2026 was among the highlights last week of World Pork Expo in Des Moines.Dr. Lee Shulz, the Chief Economist with Ever Ag, says 2025 saw the second highest production ever and the highest ever marketings, cash receipts and gross income.

Quote-Dr. Lee Shulz-Ever Ag:

We're still seeing profitable levels, about an eight dollar and half per head profit I would project. That would be the eight highest in the last 20 years so it's been about an average or a little bit better than an average year. Comparing 2025 it is notably lower.

2025 profits were about 21 dollars per head profits.It's probably not been one major factor that's provided a little bit more bearish outlook on the market.
I think it's been a lot of little factors that have combined that have given us a softer outlook than we projected six months ago.At that time, I would have projected about a 20 dollar per head profit.

From a supply standpoint, I think supplies are little bit larger than we anticipated.At the beginning of the year, you would have looked at disease impacts and said there may be a supply hole this summer.We haven't seen that quite yet and so, until we see that, we haven't seen the markets react to that anticipated tighter supply.

I think demand through the first quarter has held but I think there are challenges when we think about demand going forward domestically especially as consumer incomes have been impacted. As you at the inflationary pressures driven by gasoline prices, cost of living expenses have eroded personal finances and I think that's having an impact on demand across the board including pork.As you put that all collectively together, I think that does provide a softer outlook but I'll still rest on that we're seeing overall profitable conditions and a fairly healthy supply demand balance.

Dr. Shulz says we've seen some financial healing from the large losses of 23 and 24 and demand looks good so there'

Source : Farmscape.ca

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