RICE: No changes are made to the U.S. 2011/12 all rice and rice-by-type supply and use projections. The 2011/12 long-grain, season-average farm price range is projected at $13.50 to $14.50 per cwt, unchanged from last month.
The combined medium- and short-grain farm price range is projected at $15.50 to $16.50 per cwt, unchanged from a month ago. The all rice season-average farm price is forecast at $14.00 to $15.00 per cwt, unchanged from last month.
World 2011/12 rice supply and use projections are lowered from a month ago. Global rice production is projected at a record 460.8 million tons, but down slightly due primarily to lower forecasts for Brazil and China, which is partially offset by an increase for Vietnam.
The China rice crop is projected at a record 140.5 million tons, down 0.5 million from last month, based on China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) report published on December 2. NBS reported harvested area at 29.9 million hectares, slightly above the previous year, and a record yield at 6.70 metric tons per hectare, up 2 percent from 2010/11.
The Brazil crop is lowered due to a reduction in harvested area based on government indications.
The Vietnam crop is raised due to both an increase in forecast area and yield, mostly resulting from a forecast larger autumn crop. Slight decreases are made to both global consumption and trade. Global 2011/12 ending stocks are projected at 99.5 million tons, down 1.1 million from last month, but up 2.8 million from 2010/11.
The change in ending stocks is due primarily to lower stocks projected for Indonesia. Indonesia’s 2010/11 rice crop is lowered 1.6 million tons based largely on lower area in a report received from the Agricultural Counselor in Jakarta. The smaller crop led to a decrease in estimated 2010/11 ending stocks which is carried into 2011/12.
Source: USDA