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AFBF Cautions Against Tariffs on Top Trading Partners

The American Farm Bureau today sent President Donald Trump a letter expressing concern that new tariffs levied against Canada, Mexico and China may inadvertently create financial hardships on U.S. farmers and ranchers. Historically, retaliatory actions often target U.S. agriculture but then ripple throughout the U.S. economy.

“Last year, the U.S. exported over $30 billion in agricultural products to Mexico, $29 billion to Canada and $26 billion to China – our top three markets by value combined for half of total agricultural exports,” the letter states. “Any effort to impose additional tariffs on these nations’ imports runs the risk of significant retaliatory measures against U.S. agricultural exports. We ask that you carefully consider the impact on American farmers and ranchers, associated businesses and rural communities when determining potential trade actions. For decades, American agriculture has strongly supported efforts to open the world to our agricultural and other trade products.”

The letter also provides broader context about the importance of international markets to U.S. farmers and ranchers, stating, “Ninety-five percent of the world’s consumers live outside the borders of the United States and over twenty percent of U.S. farm income is based on agricultural exports. Expanding opportunities for U.S. crop and livestock producers to access international markets will boost farm income in the United States, while preserving existing access is critical to maintaining farm income. U.S. agricultural exports amounted to $174.5 billion in FY2024, and – historically – every $1 of U.S. agricultural exports results in over $2 in additional domestic economic activity.”

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Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?

Video: Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?


Historically, the USDA December crop report is a non-event or another dud report as the USDA reserves any final supply changes to the final report in January of the following year in this case 2026. But after the longest U.S. government shutdown in history at 43 days and no October crop report will they provide more data/surprise and make an exception?
Our China U.S. soybean purchase tracker is now at 26.6% or a total of 3.2 mmt but for traders it’s taking too long to unfold.
The final Stats Canada production report was bearish canola and wheat projection a record crop in both (it adds to the global glut of supplies) and bullish local corn and soybean prices in Ontario/Quebec thanks to a drought. It will not help the fund flow short-term, the USDA may need to offset it?
A U.S. Fed interest rate cut of another 25-basis point next Wednesday (probability 87.1%) could help fund flow and sentiment in stock and ag commodities into year end.
More inflows into Bitcoin this past week saw prices rebound back above 90,000 with support at 82,000 and resistance at 96,000.
A V-shaped bottom in cattle suggest the lows are in after Mexico reported another new world screwworm case. Lower weights, seasonal demand and higher U.S. beef select/choice values with a continued closure of the Mexican border to cattle will result in a resumption of higher cattle futures into yearend.
Australia is expected to produce its 3rd largest wheat crop ever at 36 mmt adding to the global glut of supplies.
Reports of ASF in hogs in Spain the largest pork exporter in Europe could see the U.S. win more pork export business long-term.
If the rains verify into next week of 3-5 inches for Brazil it would go a long way to fixing the dry regions from the last 2-months, but the European weather model has been wrong for the past 2-months!
Natural gas futures are surging to the 3rd price count as frigid hold temps set in.
CDN $ is also surging to end the week on a very resilient economy and better employment numbers suggesting no interest rate cuts next week.
Finally, the CFTC report showed funds were net buyers of soybeans but sellers of corn, canola and wheat. In real time the funds have gone back to selling as they take some profits.