By Lauren Cross
Late 2025 marked the most severe three-month stretch in more than a decade for the gap between what agriculture producers pay to operate and what they receive in return, according to an analysis of USDA data released Friday.
The latest data builds on a pattern that’s existed for years: U.S. farmers have faced a cost deficit every month since at least January 2015, according to an Investigate Midwest analysis of federal price indexes.
Data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture shows that the prices paid index, which tracks production costs such as fertilizer, fuel, seed, feed, machinery, and labor, has exceeded the prices received index in every month over the past decade.
The indexes are measured against 2011 levels, which are set to 100, allowing changes over time to be compared without using dollar amounts. A ratio above 100 means farmers’ selling prices are increasing faster than their production costs.
The size of that cost-price deficit has fluctuated, but it has never turned positive. Even during periods when rising commodity prices narrowed the gap, farmers still faced higher indexed costs than indexed returns, the data shows.
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